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Crude Oil & Brent Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast October 2014

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 22:00 UTC

Outlook and Recommendation Crude Oil  was weak most of the month on lower demand and high production with a global glut. The commodity closed at 91.16

Crude Oil & Brent Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast October 2014

oil monthly bnsnla
Outlook and Recommendation

Crude Oil  was weak most of the month on lower demand and high production with a global glut. The commodity closed at 91.16 after climbing back above the $94 level and then crashing as the markets closed for the month. Brent Oil  dipped from over $100 to close at 94.98 near its weakest point of the month as OPEC production levels continued to grow and demand weakened. Traders paid little attention to the geopolitical situation and more towards the economic recovery of the US. This would normally increase demand, but production in the US continues to soar to record highs as shale facilities produced record levels of oil. Oil is expected to trade in a range as OPEC will not meet to review production quotas until November.

WTI plummeted USD 3.41 a barrel  as the month ended and Brent tumbled $2.53 on the 30th owing to a supply glut and a pick-up in the dollar, which is sitting at a six-year high against the yen and a two-year high against the euro.

After rising for four months, the Conference Board index — a key barometer of US consumer confidence — fell to 86.0 in September from 93.4 in August on mounting concerns about the jobs market. Consumer spending is a key growth driver in the world’s biggest economy and any dip in the index indicates weak demand. But analysts said other economic indicators remain strong.

The drastic drop of the oil prices has coincided with the highest bullish trend by the US dollar, vis a vis the basket of hard currencies, since four years ago, and the highest against the euro since two years ago.
Noticeable rise of supplies from the Middle East, Africa and the United States contributed to the bearish trend of the crude prices; a factor that has also alleviated fears with respect of forecast disruption of the oil supplies from these regions, currently gripped with dramatic political and military conflicts.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

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Crude Oil(4 Hours)20141001061140

Brent Oil(4 Hours)20141001061206
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.                       Event    

Wednesday, October 1

                 CNY                    Manufacturing PMI                                                       

                 EUR                    German Manufacturing PMI                                                      

                 GBP                     Manufacturing PMI                                                       

                 USD                    ADP Nonfarm Employment Change                                                        

                 USD                    ISM Manufacturing PMI                                               

Thursday, October 2

                 GBP                     Construction PMI                                                          

                 EUR                    Interest Rate Decision                                                  

Friday, October 3

                 GBP                     Services PMI                                                    

                 USD                    Nonfarm Payrolls                                                          

                 USD                    Unemployment Rate                                   

                 USD                    ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI                                                     

Monday, October 6

                 CAD                    Ivey PMI                                                                          

Tuesday, October 7

                 GBP                     Manufacturing Production (MoM)                                          

Thursday, October 9

                 GBP                     Interest Rate Decision                                                

Friday, October 10

                 CAD                    Employment Change                                                  

Monday, October 13

                 CNY                    Trade Balance                                               

Tuesday, October 14

                 EUR                    German ZEW Economic Sentiment                                                                         

Wednesday, October 15

                 CNY                    CPI (YoY)                                                         

                 GBP                     Average Earnings Index +Bonus                               

Thursday, October 16

12:00       EUR                    CPI (YoY)                                                                          

Friday, October 17

15:30       CAD                    Core CPI (MoM)

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 11:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 01 11:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 01 11:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Gilt

Oct 02 10:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 02 17:00 US Announces details of 3/10Y Note

                                            

 

 

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