ETH Bulls to Target $1,950 on Sentiment toward Crypto ETFs

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, ETH joined the broader market in positive territory, gaining 1.31% to end the day at $1,853.
• News of Fidelity filing a request to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF delivered support amidst a hawkish Fed backdrop.
• The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to sub-$1,950.

Ethereum (ETH) rose by 1.31% on Thursday. Partially reversing a 3.23% fall from Wednesday, ETH ended the day at $1,853. Despite the bullish session, ETH fell short of the $1,900 handle for the second consecutive day.

Bullish throughout the morning, ETH rose from an opening price of $1,828 to an early afternoon high of $1,879. Coming up against the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,874, ETH eased back to end the day at $1,853.

Fidelity ETF-Linked News Delivered a Bullish Session

It was a busy Thursday session. US economic indicators and Fed bets weighed on riskier assets in the afternoon. Better-than-expected Q1 GDP numbers and a fall in the US jobless claims fueled bets on a July Fed rate hike and a September move.

However, the crypto news wires provided much-needed support. On Thursday, Cboe BZX Exchange refiled the request to seek approval for the Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust. Previously, the SEC turned down the Fidelity proposal. More requests are likely after the SEC approval of the Volatility Shares Trust 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF.

ETH is likely to be a beneficiary of the ETF market. On Monday, news hit the crypto wires of The Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank Corporation (HSBC) clients gaining access to BTC and ETH exchange-traded funds (ETF).

With asset managers testing the waters with spot BTC ETFs in the US, ETH ETFs may also draw institutional monies in the future.

Staking Statistics Turned Bearish to Weigh on Investor Sentiment

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 28,288 ETH on Wednesday to 37,152 on Thursday. However, ETH staking inflows remained below the 100,000 ETH threshold and Thursday trends.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals at elevated levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session were also bearish. Projections show principal ETH withdrawals will remain above normal levels this morning.

On Wednesday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 3,930 ETH deficit (-64.05%) over 24 hours, equivalent to a negative balance of $7.29 million. Deposits totaled zero versus withdrawals of 3,930 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 28,030 ETH, equivalent to approximately $52.63 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.68%, down 0.70% over 24 hours. The downward trend in the staking APR remains a drag for staking inflows and is ETH price negative.

The Day Ahead

It is a busy Friday on the US economic calendar. The US Core PCE Price Index and personal income numbers will likely decide the Fed’s near-term monetary policy moves. After hawkish US economic indicators on Thursday, sticky inflation would cement a July move and raise the bets on a September move.

Beyond the US economic calendar, crypto-ETF-related chatter and SEC v Ripple Court rulings would garner plenty of interest.

However, ETH staking statistics and SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase (COIN)-related news updates will also provide direction.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was up 1.35% to $1,878. A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,843 before rising to a high of $1,879. The First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,879 capped the upside.

ETH Technical Indicators

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bullish signals. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,856. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($1,856) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,879) to target R2 ($1,904) and $1,950. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,856) would bring the 100-day EMA ($1,837), S1 ($1,828), and the 200-day EMA ($1,828) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send bearish signals.

Resistance & Support Level