EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Fiber Bulls Buckle-Up Ahead of German Unemployment Figures

After falling last day from the 1.12 handle, the pair maintained a minor range bound approach within 1.1160/70 levels. At around 05:47 GMT, the EUR/USD pair was trading near 1.1168 levels, 0.35% down since week start. However, the EUR/USD pair was taking rounds near its opening mark in the Asian trading session. During the day, there are more EUR-specific data than USD-specific data. Hence, traders can expect most of the volatility to appear before the North American session.

Last night, the leaders of the 28 member countries gathered for an informal dinner-party meeting in Brussels. The casual meet discussed on the appointment of the bloc’s top jobs. So once the new EU Parliament is set ready, the first task would be to appoint a new President. The new head would undergo a process called ‘Spitzenkandidaten’. In this process, the political party with a higher number of votes will nominate their candidates, and through voting, there will be the final selection. The new appointee will take charge of the President post in October’s Plenary session. Few nominees include Manfred Weber, Frans Timmermans, Jan Zahradil, Oriol Junqueras, Ska Keller, and Margrethe Vestager.

The US 10-Year Treasury Bonds experienced plunge this morning driving down 40 bps, reaching 2.24 %. The Yield figures had dropped as US-China Trade tensions continued to impact the Investors Sentiments. Other factors such as slower global growth, missing the Fed’s inflation targets, and lingering Trade War seemed to contribute in the weakening of T-bonds.

The Greenback computed against the six major rival currencies, hovered near 98 levels this Wednesday. The US Dollar Index remained reluctant to any impacts from the ongoing US-Sino trade deal. Yesterday, the sound Consumer Confidence report helped the Greenback to stay above 97.70 levels. The traders remain influenced with the last day’s positive economic data and hoping for any Trade deal developments.

EUR/USD Specific Events

After a moderate start to the week, Wednesday’s EUR economic calendar will include the second-tier economic data for Germany. The schedule will kick off with CPI and QoQ GDP for France. And, further will display the German Unemployment Rates and Unemployment Change. The consensus estimates the Jobless report to remain in-line with the previous numbers near 4.90%. Whereas they anticipate the change in the unemployment figures and to come around negative 8 points.

Furthermore, the President of German Buba will deliver a speech on the topic “De Actual”. At 07:45 GMT, the ECB’S Mersch will give his opinion about the Monetary Policy and the Economic situation in the region. The statements of both signatories will have a significant impact on the Fiber today, hence needs a closer watch.

On the US front, there are few low volatile events lined-up for the day. The MBA Mortgage Applications, Redbook Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will strike on the economic calendar.

Technical Analysis

The Fiber has dropped significantly in the last few sessions reaching weekly low levels. After making a pullback through the 50% Fibo levels, the pair recently came further down crossing 61.8% Fibo levels. However, the pair seems to restrain to make further down moves and stays still just below 1.1168 levels. Meanwhile, investor sentiment seemed to drop as the RSI indicated 40 levels. Notably, both the near term and long term SMAs stood well above the pair alluding bearish trend.