EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Investors Mull as Fiber Licks Yesterday’s Wounds

After marking the weekly low near 1.1124 levels yesterday, the EUR/USD pair showed some minor recovery signs today. The pair had already quoted a fresh daily high near 1.1143 levels in the morning session.

During the day, Investors seem to have lost confidence over the Fiber seeing the weak May German Unemployment data. The data had reported 5.0% over 4.9% market estimates. This figure records as the highest Unemployment change (+60K) since 2017. Today, on account of Ascension day, banks would remain closed in France, Germany, and Switzerland. However, there are still a few Spain and USD-specific data coming up to violate the pair’s movements.

Meanwhile, the EU Officials have gone upset seeing Italy’s expenditure over the last one year. The Italian debt figures had soared from 131.4% of GDP in 2017 to 132.2% of GDP in 2018. The EU had earlier threatened to slam Italy with a fine of around € 3-4 Billion. However, before the actual implementation of the penalty, EU Officials need an explanation on the overall spending of the EU member. A recent Telegraph report also suggested that Italy might go with a parallel currency to the Euro. Hence, this debt crisis issue adds up more pessimism to the already beaten Fiber.

On the other side of the equation, the Greenback remained sustained in its weekly top zone. The US Dollar Index was hovering near 98.20 levels in the Asian trading session. However, the market set in a bearish stance on the upcoming significant US Q1 GDP figures. Depending upon the event outcome, traders can expect a good move in the Fiber too.

EUR/USD Specific Events

A few moments ago, the Spanish HICP and CPI (Both YoY & MoM) reported lower-than-expectation. The YoY CPI data came out around 0.8% than anticipated 1.1%. Whereas the monthly MoM CPI data appeared bullish despite the market expected lower numbers this time. Meanwhile, the YoY & MoM HCIP figures has recorded 0.9% and 0.2% respectively. At 08:00 GMT, the Retail Sales report for Spain had anticipated coming near 0.80% to the previous 1.70%.

On the USD front, the US Annualized GDP data will come out. As this is a high volatile event, investors would require to keep a close watch on the numbers. The market expects the GDP to decrease with 0.1% to the prior 3.2%. Further, the Street analysts await the Continuing Jobless Claims to, whereas the Initial Claims reports increasing. Meanwhile, the GDP Price Index is expected to come around 1.70% this time.

Technical Analysis

After opening today, the EUR/USD pair seemed to stabilize near 1.1140 levels in the Asian session. Following the Bank Holiday and lack of supportive economic releases concerning the Euro, the market expects the pair to drive down until the first session ends. And, if pair slips, then it might find support near 1.1108 levels. Also, a range bound pattern between 1.1150 and 1.1120 levels with the EUR/USD pair might occur. The RSI hovering near 33 levels, alludes moderate buying.