EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – Fiber on the Back Foot Ahead of German GDP, PMI & IFOs

The Euro pair remains under due pressure from all major fronts viz the EU Elections, Brexit and robust growing Greenback. Traders look north ahead of German May Markit PMI.
Nikhil Khandelwal

Fiber ticked lower on Thursday morning after starting the day near 1.1155 levels. The pair was underway to break the active support line near 1.1149 levels.

European Union would commence the EU Parliamentary Elections today. Hence, the already beaten Euro pair may suffer significant pressure over every update on that front.

The overall market seems to expect a win for the Eurosceptic parties this time. An Opinion Poll conducted recently showed the new Brexit party formed by Nigale Farag might grab majority. The Poll results displayed 34% support to the Brexit Party, 21% support to Labor, and 11% to Tories. The Fiber stays depressed as the probabilities of an anti-European party winning shoots up.

Meanwhile, the EU expected the UK to leave the consortium before the Elections. Anyway, UK PM Theresa May couldn’t complete the EU-UK divorce task. Hoping the UK would leave the Union before Elections, some UK parliamentary seats had earlier got allotted to France. However, as the UK would participate this time, France needs to return those seats. This situation creates a blue tone against the EU from the France side today.

On the other side of the frame, the Greenback stays high crossing beyond the 98.12 levels. This increase in the USD Index puts additional pressure on the Fiber. Last night, the FOMC minutes came out, and quite surprisingly, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged. The minutes also read that there remains less impact from the current global cues.

EUR/USD Influencing Events

Today, in the Asian session, the Manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone will get released. Out of these, the German Markit Manufacturing PMI and the European Composite PMI needs a closer watch and may impact the pair significantly. The consensus estimates the German index to go bullish reporting near 44.8%. Whereas, they anticipate the European PMI to come 0.2% higher this time.

At 06:00 GMT, the German GDP will appear, and the market remains in-line with the previous numbers. Laterwards, the Markit Economics will release the Services & the Composite PMI, and the market remains bearish over the figures. At 08:00 GMT, the IFO will issue the German Expectations, the Business Climate, and the Current Assessment. The Street analysts anticipate the former two indexes to come out lower whereas the latter one to report higher.

On the USD front, the market expects higher Continuing and Initial Jobless claims figures. At 13:45 GMT, the Markit PMI for the Services, Manufacturing and the Composite of both sectors will come out. The analysts anticipate lower numbers in Manufacturing data. On the other hand, the market stays bullish with the US Services PMI. Furthermore, the New Home Sales and the Sales Change report will get published. The market remains bearish with their numbers to both these reports.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD 60 Min 23 May 2019

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair took a downward momentum. The Fiber hovered near 1.1150 levels and seemed moving further down. The pair may find next support point near 1.1142 levels. The EMA of the Bollinger Bands (BB) remained above the Fiber, and this referred bearish stance. The broader Bands of BB signals high chances of the pair drifting down. All the significant Simple Moving Averages (SMA) appeared above the pair, alluding bear call. However, the negative trend may be short-lived as the 50-days SMA stood below the 100-days and 200-days SMA. The RSI indicated 38 levels, showing moderate trader interest.

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