EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: Dollar Index Up to $105.25; Bearish Correction?

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Published: Jun 10, 2024, 07:38 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

U.S. non-farm payrolls added 272,000 jobs in May, surpassing the expected 182,000, raising the unemployment rate to 4.0%.
The Dollar Index rose 0.31% to $105.248, driven by strong employment figures and higher-than-expected hourly earnings.
Upcoming data, including EUR Italian Industrial Production and Sentix Investor Confidence, may influence EUR/USD

Market Overview

Last week’s economic events significantly influenced the forex markets, as the U.S. non-farm payroll report showed an impressive addition of 272,000 jobs in May, far exceeding the expected 182,000. This pushed the unemployment rate up slightly to 4.0%.

Additionally, average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, above the forecasted 0.3%. These strong employment figures have fortified the U.S. dollar, driving the Dollar Index up by 0.31% to $105.248. The 4-hour chart for the Dollar Index shows a pivot point at $105.304, with immediate resistance at $105.489.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead, the upcoming data includes the EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m, forecasted at 0.3%, and the EUR Sentix Investor Confidence, expected at -1.5.

Additionally, the German Buba President Nagel’s speech and Japan’s M2 Money Stock y/y data will be critical. For the Dollar Index, U.S. economic indicators and central bank commentary will continue to play a significant role.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is currently trading at $105.248, up 0.31% for the day. The 4-hour chart identifies key levels, with the pivot point at $105.304. Immediate resistance is at $105.489, followed by $105.654 and $105.849. On the downside, immediate support is at $105.001, with further support at $104.816 and $104.667.

Technical indicators show the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $104.511 and the 200-day EMA at $104.635, suggesting potential support zones. The dollar index remains bearish below $105.304. A break above this level could shift the bias to bullish, while staying below it may continue the downward trend.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.07494, down 0.43% for the day. The 4-hour chart highlights key levels to monitor, with the pivot point at $1.07902. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.08280, $1.08641, and $1.09166. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.07234, followed by $1.06898 and $1.06500.

Technical indicators include the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08519 and the 200-day EMA at $1.08200, both indicating potential resistance zones. EUR/USD remains bearish below the pivot point of $1.07902.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at $1.27168, down 0.03% for the day. The 4-hour chart indicates key levels, with the pivot point at $1.2711. Immediate resistance is at $1.2735, followed by $1.2750 and $1.2763. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.2695, with further support at $1.2674 and $1.2652.

Technical indicators show the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.2761 and the 200-day EMA at $1.2723, suggesting potential resistance zones. GBP/USD is bullish above $1.2711, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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