EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: DXY at 105.80; EUR, GBP to Trade Bullish Today?

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Published: Jun 24, 2024, 08:03 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

UK Retail Sales rose 2.9%, surpassing expectations of 1.6%, boosting GBP/USD.
Eurozone's PMI data disappointed, pressuring EUR/USD with weaker-than-expected figures.
Strong US PMI data supported the Dollar Index, maintaining its strength at 105.80.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: DXY at 105.80; EUR, GBP to Trade Bullish Today?

Market Overview

Last Friday saw significant activity as the UK Retail Sales m/m rose by 2.9%, significantly surpassing expectations of 1.6% and the previous month’s -1.8%, providing a boost to GBP/USD.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone experienced weaker-than-expected PMI data. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.3, below the forecast of 46.8, and the German Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 43.4, against an expectation of 46.4. These disappointing figures pressured the EUR/USD downward.

In the US, the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.7, beating the forecast of 51.0, and the Flash Services PMI rose to 55.1, up from the expected 53.4. This stronger-than-expected data supported the Dollar Index, which maintained its strength at 105.80.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead to Monday, the focus will be on speeches from FOMC members Waller at 7:00 and Daly at 18:00, which could provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.

In Europe, the German ifo Business Climate index will be released at 8:00, with a slight increase expected from 89.3 to 89.4. At 10:00, the UK’s CBI Industrial Order Expectations are forecasted to improve to -26 from -33.

Additionally, German Buba President Nagel will speak at 10:10, and the Belgian NBB Business Climate index, expected to rise from -11.0 to -10.2, will be announced at 13:00.

These events will be closely monitored by traders to gauge their potential impact on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and the Dollar Index.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Dollar Index is trading at $105.668, down 0.02%. The pivot point is at $105.777, marked by the green line. Immediate resistance levels are $105.973, $106.148, and $106.313, indicating potential upward movement.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $105.532, with further support at $105.326 and $105.159. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $105.391, while the 200-day EMA is at $105.053.

These technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook below $105.777. However, a break above this level could shift the bias to bullish.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD is trading at $1.07127, up 0.03%. The pivot point is $1.07109, marked by the green line. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.07381, $1.07597, and $1.07817, suggesting potential upward movement.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.06865, with further support at $1.06678 and $1.06479. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.07342, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.07802.

These technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook above $1.07109. However, a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD is trading at $1.26561, up 0.02%. The pivot point is at $1.26315, marked by the green line. Immediate resistance levels are $1.26668, $1.26922, and $1.27324, suggesting potential upward movement.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.26104, with further support at $1.25865 and $1.25636. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.26963, and the 200-day EMA is at $1.26890.

These technical indicators indicate a bullish outlook above $1.26315. However, a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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