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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: DXY Nears $105.30; Is a Rally on the Horizon?
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Key Points:
- UK CPI year-on-year holds at 2.0%, Core CPI meets expectations at 3.5%, down from 3.9%.
- Eurozone's Current Account data expected at €35.2 billion, with German 30-year Bond Auction results anticipated.
- US Dollar Index (DXY) at $105.290; support at $105.031, resistance at $105.449.
In the UK, the latest economic data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year held steady at 2.0%, matching forecasts but down from the previous 2.3%. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile items, also met expectations at 3.5%, yet slightly lower than the previous 3.9%.
Meanwhile, Producer Price Index (PPI) Input and Output data showed mixed results; input prices were flat against an expected -0.3% and a prior 0.8%, while output prices fell by 0.1%, slightly underperforming the 0.1% forecast and down from 0.3%.
Additionally, the Retail Price Index (RPI) eased to 3.0%, missing the 3.1% expectation and down from the prior 3.3%.
Events Ahead
Looking forward, the Eurozone’s Current Account data will be released at 8:00 AM, with expectations at €35.2 billion, just shy of the previous €35.8 billion. The UK’s House Price Index (HPI) year-on-year is also due at 8:30 AM, forecasted to rise by 2.0%, up from the prior 1.8%.
Additionally, the German 30-year Bond Auction results will be closely watched, with a previous yield of 2.62%. The US markets will be quiet due to a Bank Holiday, but the NAHB Housing Market Index, expected to remain steady at 45, will be released at 2:00 PM.
The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at $105.290, up 0.03%. The pivot point at $105.216 is crucial for determining the next price movement. Immediate resistance is noted at $105.449, followed by $105.608 and $105.816. On the downside, immediate support is found at $105.031, with further support at $104.849 and $104.664.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $105.295, while the 200-day EMA is at $104.988. The outlook remains bullish above $105.216, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.07362, down 0.03%. The pivot point at $1.07598 is crucial for determining the next price movement. Immediate resistance is noted at $1.07817, followed by $1.07820 and $1.08129. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.07119, with further support at $1.06865 and $1.06678.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.07377, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.07853. The outlook remains bearish below $1.07598, but a break above this level could enhance bullish momentum.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.27073, down 0.01%. The pivot point at $1.27138 is crucial for determining the next price movement. Immediate resistance is noted at $1.27325, followed by $1.27498 and $1.27677. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.26865, with further support at $1.26710 and $1.26556.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.27120, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.27233. The outlook remains bearish below $1.27138, but a break above this level could enhance bullish momentum.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
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