EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Bearish Below EMA 105.65

By:

Updated: Jul 3, 2024, 08:02 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Eurozone's Core CPI met expectations at 2.9%, while CPI slightly missed at 2.5%.
Powell’s dovish remarks added volatility, with JOLTS Job Openings exceeding expectations at 8.14 million.
EUR/USD traded at $1.07557, down 0.01%, GBP/USD at $1.26911, up 0.02%.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Bearish Below EMA 105.65

Market Overview

On July 2, the Eurozone’s Core CPI Flash Estimate year-on-year was stable at 2.9%, meeting expectations. The CPI Flash Estimate was slightly below expectations at 2.5%.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde’s speech and Fed Chair Powell’s comments were closely watched. Powell’s remarks, suggesting the possibility of future rate cuts, added some volatility to the market.

In the US, JOLTS Job Openings reported 8.14 million, exceeding the forecast of 7.96 million and the previous figure of 7.92 million. This strong labor market data provided some support for the US dollar.

The EUR/USD pair traded around $1.07557, down 0.01%, reflecting mixed reactions to these data points. The GBP/USD pair saw a slight increase, trading at $1.26911, up 0.02%, as traders evaluated the implications of Powell’s dovish stance and strong US job openings data.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead to July 3, several significant events are set to impact the markets. At 12:15 PM, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to report 163K, slightly up from the previous 152K.

Unemployment Claims at 12:30 PM are forecasted at 234K, close to the previous 233K. The Final Services PMI and ISM Services PMI are scheduled for 1:45 PM and 2:00 PM, expected at 55.0 and 52.6, respectively.

At 2:15 PM, ECB President Lagarde will speak again, followed by the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 6:00 PM.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Dollar Index is trading at $105.659, up 0.04%. The 2-hour chart highlights key levels with the pivot point at $105.798. Immediate resistance stands at $106.000, followed by $106.130 and $106.261. Support levels are $105.629, $105.426, and $105.254.

Technical indicators show the 50 EMA at $105.784 and the 200 EMA at $105.500, suggesting a bearish outlook below the pivot point. The Dollar Index remains bearish below $105.798, with a break above this level potentially shifting the bias to bullish.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.07557, down 0.01%. The 4-hour chart reveals key levels with the pivot point at $1.07363. Immediate resistance is at $1.07621, followed by $1.07815 and $1.07975. Support levels are $1.07059, $1.06864, and $1.06660.

Technical indicators show the 50 EMA at $1.07301 and the 200 EMA at $1.07397, suggesting a bullish outlook. The pair remains bullish above $1.07363, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.26911, up 0.02%. The 2-hour chart highlights key levels, with the pivot point at $1.26797. Immediate resistance is at $1.27096, followed by $1.27358 and $1.27539. Support levels are $1.26578, $1.26364, and $1.26124.

Technical indicators show the 50 EMA at $1.2662 and the 200 EMA at $1.2680, indicating a bullish trend. GBP/USD remains bullish above $1.26797, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

Editors’ Picks