EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Nears $103 – Is a Drop Imminent?

On Wednesday, August 7, German Industrial Production rose by 1.4%, surpassing the forecast of 1.0%, a recovery from the previous month’s -3.1%. However, the German Trade Balance showed a decline to 20.4B, lower than the expected 21.7B and the previous 25.3B, indicating weaker export activity. French Trade Balance improved slightly but remained negative at -6.1B, better than the forecasted -7.5B.

In the UK, the Halifax House Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.8%, significantly higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous 0.0%. This positive data helped support the GBP/USD. The RICS House Price Balance, however, dropped to -19%, missing the forecast of -12%.

In the US, Crude Oil Inventories fell by 3.7M barrels, more than the expected -1.6M, suggesting higher demand. The 10-year Bond Auction yielded 3.96% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3. Consumer Credit increased by 8.9B, lower than the forecast of 9.8B and the previous 13.9B, indicating cautious consumer spending.

Events Ahead

On Thursday, August 8, upcoming events will likely influence market movements. The USD is in focus with several key data releases. At 12:30, Unemployment Claims are expected to be 241K, slightly better than the previous 249 K.

At 14:00, Final Wholesale Inventories are anticipated to remain unchanged at 0.2%. Mortgage Delinquencies are tentatively set to show a 3.94% rate.

At 14:30, Natural Gas Storage data will be released, with an expected increase of 22B, up from the previous 18B. The 30-year Bond Auction at 17:01 will be closely watched. It had a previous yield of 4.41% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3.

Finally, at 19:00, FOMC Member Barkin’s speech may provide insights into future monetary policy.