Market Overview
On Wednesday, July 10, German Buba President Nagel’s speeches and Italian Industrial Production data, which showed a 0.5% increase compared to a forecast of 0.0%, impacted the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, in the UK, speeches from MPC Members Pill and Mann likely affected the British Pound (GBP), with the RICS House Price Balance reporting a decline to -17%, matching previous data.
In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony was a focal point, along with the Final Wholesale Inventories report showing a consistent 0.6% change.
Events Ahead
On Thursday, July 11, the German Final CPI m/m is expected to remain steady at 0.1%. For the UK, GDP m/m is forecasted at 0.2%, alongside Construction Output at 0.5%, and Industrial Production at 0.3%.
The Goods Trade Balance is expected to narrow to -15.6B from -19.6B. The BOE Credit Conditions Survey and NIESR GDP Estimate, projected at 0.7%, will also be key.
In the US, the focus will be on the Core CPI m/m, expected to remain at 0.2%, and the CPI y/y, anticipated to dip to 3.1% from 3.3%. Unemployment Claims are forecasted at 236K, slightly down from 238K.
The Federal Budget Balance is projected to show a significant improvement, moving from -$347.1B to -$71.2B. The Dollar Index, currently at 104.931, down 0.03%, could face further pressure if the CPI data indicates cooling inflation.
EUR/USD Price Forecast
Every new EUR/USD analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all EUR/USD forecastsPowell’s cautious tone and potential dovish hints from FOMC members could reinforce a bearish outlook.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The Dollar Index is trading at $104.931, down 0.03% in the latest session. The two-hour chart highlights key levels with a pivot point at $105.180. Immediate resistance is at $105.331, followed by $105.481 and $105.624. On the downside, immediate support is at $104.803, with further support at $104.662 and $104.528.
Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with the 50-day EMA at $105.095 and the 200-day EMA at $105.297. The outlook remains bearish below $105.180; a break above this level could shift the trend to bullish.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08369, up 0.07% in the latest session. The two-hour chart highlights key levels with a pivot point at $1.08309. Immediate resistance is at $1.08463, followed by $1.08615 and $1.08752. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.08139, with further support at $1.07993 and $1.07835.
Technical indicators show a bullish trend, with the 50-day EMA at $1.08174 and the 200-day EMA at $1.07795. The outlook remains bullish above $1.08309; a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
GBP/USD is trading at $1.28604, up 0.09% in the latest session. The two-hour chart highlights key levels with a pivot point at $1.28459. Immediate resistance is at $1.28716, followed by $1.28944 and $1.29207. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.28151, with further support at $1.27812 and $1.27590.
Technical indicators show a bullish trend, with the 50-day EMA at $1.28024 and the 200-day EMA at $1.27391. The outlook remains bullish above $1.28459; a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.
