EUR/USD Prices Forecast: Weaker as Tension Rises Ahead of Key US Inflation Data

Highlights

• EUR/USD vulnerable to upcoming US CPI report.
• Core CPI expected to show 4.3% YoY increase.
• Eurozone sentiment diverges from Germany’s optimism.

US Inflation Takes Center Stage

The US Dollar strengthened, pushing the Euro down on Tuesday as traders gear up for the upcoming US inflation report for August. With the EUR/USD trading at 1.0723, the forex markets seem to be anticipating vital insights from the Federal Reserve. The spotlight remains firmly on whether the Fed will have to raise interest rates soon, given the inflation outlook and market sentiment.

A Glimmer of Hope Amid Rising Prices

While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August is expected to showcase a slowdown in inflationary pressures, with consumer prices rising at half the pace from last year, underlying factors, including higher gas prices, can’t be ignored. August’s core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to display a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, albeit less than July’s 4.7%. Notably, the overall strength of the economy and a robust services sector have maintained core inflation at these elevated levels.

Fed’s Strategy: Walking the Tightrope

Economic analysts at Bank of America highlight that the Fed’s primary concern in combating inflation is core services prices, particularly as shelter inflation remains consistently high. Despite this, the Fed’s approach is a waiting game, observing if core inflation reduces gradually. If not, an interest rate hike could be on the horizon. The central bank is closely watching shelter costs, especially rent prices, which often lag due to the standard leasing cycle of 12 months.

European Sentiment: Germany Stands Apart

In Europe, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for September defied expectations, registering at 11.4, indicating cautious optimism. However, the Current Situation Index’s sharp decline to -79.4 points to concerns over Germany’s immediate economic health. The broader Eurozone isn’t reflecting Germany’s optimistic outlook, with its ZEW Economic Sentiment Index falling to -8.9 from August’s -5.5.

Forecast: EUR/USD Under CPI’s Microscope

As the U.S. prepares to release its CPI data, the implications for the EUR/USD pair are pivotal. Should the inflation data come in as expected or higher, the U.S. dollar could further strengthen due to heightened speculations of a quicker Fed rate hike. This would exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD.

Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI reading could weaken the dollar, providing the Euro with an opportunity to reclaim some of its recent losses. Traders are advised to keep a close eye on the CPI data release, as it will undoubtedly set the tone for the EUR/USD’s direction in the coming weeks.

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD is currently trading below both the 200-4H moving average of 1.0882 and the 50-4H moving average of 1.0757, indicating bearish momentum. The recent price decrease from 1.0744 to 1.0721 confirms this downtrend. The 14-4H RSI at 45.11 suggests weakened momentum, but it’s not yet in the oversold territory.

The currency pair is flirting with the main support area between 1.0671 to 1.0638. There’s no minor support, and the immediate resistance lies between 1.0766 to 1.0772. With no minor resistance in sight, the current market sentiment leans bearish. Traders should monitor the main support for potential reversals.