EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Gets Hammered After NFP Miss

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro has turned around and just shot straight up in the air after the initial reaction to the nonfarm payroll numbers coming out much weaker than anticipated in the United States, and in fact, came out as adding 73,000 jobs as opposed to the expected 106,000 jobs. So, it was a pretty big miss. That being said, we’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out.

But as things stand right now, it looks a lot like a market that is struggling here with the 50 day EMA. If we can break above the 1.16 level, then the market could go much higher. At that point, I think you’re looking at 1.18. If we give these gains back, that can be a very ugly turn of events. If we break down below the lows of the last couple of days, the trap door is going to fall open.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has gotten slammed against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Friday as well, as now it looks like the reaction is going to cause chaos. That being said, I think there’s still support underneath, and I think it’s only a matter of time before the support could come into the picture at the 200 day EMA and the 148 yen level, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out. If we turn around and start rallying again, we could go looking at the 151 yen level. At this point, I still prefer the upside for now, but we’ll see how this plays out over the next couple of days.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar rallied and looked like it’s going to try to break the top of an inverted hammer. We’ll have to wait and see how this closes. But if it closes above the 50 day EMA, that would be a bullish sign for the Aussie. That being said, if the job situation in the United States continues to deteriorate, that actually quite often will make the US dollar stronger over the longer term because people run into buy treasuries. If the US jobs numbers and the job market starts to crumble, the rest of the world goes with it.

Typically, what we see is a month or two of strength in other places and then it starts to show up in their economy. There’s an old adage that says, when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. I’ve been told multiple times in the last 18 years that that’s no longer true. And every time it happens, it ends up being true. So do keep that in mind. I think strength in other currencies could be a short-term thing. I can really see that environment. But over the longer term, if this keeps up, people run to the Treasury market, so keep that in mind.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.