EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – August 6, 2015 – Forecast

By:

Published: Aug 5, 2015, 15:10 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP dipped 212 points as the euro tumbled after retail sales missed forecast by a wide margin and saw a downward

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – August 6, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP dipped 212 points as the euro tumbled after retail sales missed forecast by a wide margin and saw a downward revision to last month. UK services missed forecast which limited the fall of the euro. Eurostat said sales in Germany were down 2.3% from May. That’s a blow to hopes that low unemployment and rising wages in its largest member would boost the recovery in the eurozone as whole, as Germans purchased more goods and services from weaker parts of the currency area.

But the weakness in retail sales wasn’t confined to Germany, and is also a setback to the ECB’s goal of raising the annual rate of inflation to its target of just under 2%.

The monthly Markit/CIPS UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 57.1 after hitting a four-month high of 58.1 in June, confounding a Reuters poll estimate for a rise to 58.4. It came a day after a similar survey showed the manufacturing sector improving and which helped sterling on Monday. Today Services PMI printed at 57.4 against expectations of 58.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual		Forecast	Previous
CNY	Caixin Services PMI (Jul)		53.8	52.2	51.8
RUB	Markit Services PMI (Jul)		51.6	49.2	49.5
CHF	CPI (MoM) (Jul)		-0.6%	-0.4%	0.1%
EUR	Spanish Services PMI (Jul)		59.7	55.5	56.1
EUR	German Services PMI (Jul)		53.8	53.7	53.7
EUR	Markit Composite PMI (Jul)		53.9	53.7	53.7
EUR	Services PMI (Jul)		54.0	53.8	53.8
GBP	Services PMI (Jul)		57.4	58.0	58.5
EUR	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)		-0.6%	-0.3%	0.1%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, August 6, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Employment Change (Jul)		15.0K	7.3K
GBP	Manufacturing Production (Jun)		0.2%	-0.6%
GBP	BoE Inflation Report
GBP	Interest Rate Decision (Aug)		0.50%	0.50%
GBP	BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
GBP	BoE Gov Carney Speaks