EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis September 11, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP is back above the 80 level gaining 21 points to trade at 0.8065 as the pound continued to weaken. Sterling, having seen its biggest fall in over 2-1/2 years on Monday, was steadier but stayed rooted at 10-month lows. A second opinion poll released overnight again showed a marked increase in support for Scottish independence just nine days before the country votes on whether to break away from the United Kingdom. The TNS poll found support for the ‘yes camp had risen six points to 38 per cent, just a pip behind the ‘No’ vote at 39 per cent. That followed a weekend poll showing approval of independence at 51 percent against the unity camp’s 49 per cent, the first this year to find a majority for a ‘Yes’ vote.

German FinMin Schaeuble said ‘economic environment has weakened somewhat due to external factors; Germany must continue its stability policies, anything else would lead to a new crisis of confidence; German budgets without net new borrowing should be new norm farm 2015; Germany fulfilling European stability & growth pact obligations by presenting balanced budget by 2015’; Germany has proven stability policies are the best foundation for growth; Mobilizing private investment more effective than state spending programs; ECB is doing what it can but its instruments are all but exhausted.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 11 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Sep 11 09:30 UK Gbp 2.0bn 3.5% Jan 2045 Gilt

Sep 11 15:00 US Announces details of 10Y TIPS auction on Sep 18

Sep 11 17:00 US Usd 13bn 30Y bond

Sep 15 09:00 Norway T-bill auction

Sep 16 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Sep 16 09:00 Slovakia Bond auction (for decision)

Sep 16 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Dec 2014 & Sep 2015)

Sep 17 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Sep 17 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Sep 18 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Sep 18 09:30 Ireland T-bill auction