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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 14 – 18, 2014 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP ended the week at 0.8303 as the euro continued to gain momentum and the pound eased slightly. There was
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP ended the week at 0.8303 as the euro continued to gain momentum and the pound eased slightly. There was very little economics data at the end of the week for either currency but the pound had been trading on a positive note after manufacturing and output data supported the currency as well as a positive jobs report this week. The Bank of England held rates and policy.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Apr 11, 2014 |
0.8303 |
0.8277 |
0.8310 |
0.8277 |
0.31% |
|
Apr 10, 2014 |
0.8277 |
0.8246 |
0.8280 |
0.8241 |
0.38% |
|
Apr 09, 2014 |
0.8246 |
0.8236 |
0.8256 |
0.8231 |
0.12% |
|
Apr 08, 2014 |
0.8236 |
0.8274 |
0.8276 |
0.8233 |
-0.46% |
|
Apr 07, 2014 |
0.8274 |
0.8266 |
0.8285 |
0.8262 |
0.10% |
Sterling meanwhile fell as investors broadly ignored the publication of a number of reports which showed that inflation in the Eurozone fell more than forecast in March and instead weighed upon Sterling following a weak construction report. According to the Office for National Statistics Construction output in the UK fell in the second month of the year as heavy rain caused flooding in many parts of the nation. Construction output declined by 2.8%, the biggest drop recorded since November last year. Looking ahead to next week we can expect the Euro to once again soften as economists expect Wednesday’s Eurozone inflation report to disappoint. Concerns are high over the threat of deflation and a negative figure will pile more pressure onto the European Central Bank to take action.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to Present
Highest: 0.9084 EUR on Jul 01, 2011
Average: 0.8351 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012
Major Economic Events for the week of April 7 – 11 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Apr. 07 |
EUR |
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
Apr. 08 |
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
1.0% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
|
|
USD |
JOLTs Job Openings |
4.17M |
3.99M |
3.87M |
|
Apr. 09 |
EUR |
German Trade Balance |
15.7B |
17.8B |
17.3B |
|
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-9.09B |
-9.20B |
-9.46B |
|
|
USD |
10-Year Note Auction |
2.720% |
2.729% |
|
|
Apr. 10 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
57% |
44% |
45% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
7.71B |
0.90B |
-22.98B |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Exports (YoY) |
-6.6% |
4.0% |
-18.1% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Imports (YoY) |
-11.3% |
2.4% |
10.1% |
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
GBP |
BoE QE Total |
375B |
375B |
375B |
|
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
300K |
320K |
332K |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-36.9B |
-78.0B |
-193.5B |
|
Apr. 11 |
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.5% |
2.0% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-2.3% |
-2.2% |
-2.0% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
82.6 |
81.0 |
80.0 |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Expectations |
73.3 |
71.4 |
70.0 |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and the USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Apr. 14 |
EUR |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.8% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
Apr. 15 |
GBP |
1.6% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
GBP |
-0.2% |
-0.4% |
|
|
|
GBP |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
EUR |
45.0 |
46.6 |
|
|
|
EUR |
51.8 |
51.3 |
|
|
|
USD |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
USD |
8.00 |
5.61 |
|
|
|
USD |
1.6% |
1.6% |
|
|
|
USD |
7.3B |
||
|
Apr. 16 |
CNY |
18.1% |
17.9% |
|
|
|
CNY |
7.3% |
7.7% |
|
|
|
CNY |
9.0% |
8.6% |
|
|
|
GBP |
-30.0K |
-34.6K |
|
|
|
EUR |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
EUR |
1.0% |
||
|
|
EUR |
1.0% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
USD |
1.020M |
1.014M |
|
|
|
USD |
0.975M |
0.907M |
|
|
|
USD |
7.3% |
||
|
|
USD |
-0.2% |
||
|
|
USD |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
|
Apr. 17 |
USD |
9.9 |
9.0 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Apr 14 09:30 Germany
Apr 15 09:30 Belgium
Apr 15 14:30 UK
Apr 16 09:03 Sweden
Apr 16 09:30 Germany
Apr 17 09:00 Slovakia
Apr 17 15:00 US
Apr 17 15:30 Italy
Apr 17 17:00 US
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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