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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 31 – April 4, 2014 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP eased most of the week to close at 0.8262 after the euro tumbled on words from the ECB about negative
The EUR/GBP eased most of the week to close at 0.8262 after the euro tumbled on words from the ECB about negative interest rates and stimulus as inflation continues to worsen. The pound climbed on stronger data including retail sales and GDP. German inflation was 0.9 percent, well below the ECB target, but only lost 0.01 since the 1 percent reading in February. The somewhat positive inflation reading gives the ECB some breathing room in next week’s meeting. Deflation could force the central bank to introduce new stimulus measures which will devalue the EUR. ECB Governing Council member Luis Maria Linde said this week policy makers take the risk of deflation seriously and more monetary easing hadn’t been ruled out. The council will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low 0.25 percent when it announces a policy decision on April 3, according to most economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Mar 28, 2014 |
0.8262 |
0.8274 |
0.8282 |
0.8246 |
-0.15% |
|
Mar 27, 2014 |
0.8274 |
0.8316 |
0.8322 |
0.8263 |
-0.51% |
|
Mar 26, 2014 |
0.8316 |
0.8359 |
0.8364 |
0.8311 |
-0.51% |
|
Mar 25, 2014 |
0.8359 |
0.8387 |
0.8394 |
0.8335 |
-0.33% |
|
Mar 24, 2014 |
0.8387 |
0.8365 |
0.8391 |
0.8344 |
0.26% |
The pound has staged a concerted comeback against the other major global currencies during the latter part of this week. Yesterday’s highly positive British Retail Sales data helped support the Pound and the Confederation of British Industry’s overnight assessment that the UK economy is still experiencing above average growth has provided further strength for Sterling.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to Present
Highest: 0.9084 EUR on Jul 01, 2011
Average: 0.8351 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012
Major Economic Events for the week of March 24 – 28 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Mar. 24 |
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
51.9 |
49.8 |
49.7 |
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
51.4 |
47.5 |
47.2 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
53.8 |
54.6 |
54.8 |
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
54.0 |
55.5 |
55.9 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
53.0 |
53.0 |
53.2 |
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
52.4 |
52.6 |
52.6 |
|
Mar. 25 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
110.7 |
111.0 |
111.3 |
|
|
EUR |
German Current Assessment |
115.2 |
114.6 |
114.4 |
|
|
EUR |
German Business Expectations |
106.4 |
107.6 |
108.3 |
|
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
47.6K |
50.0K |
49.3K |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.7% |
1.9% |
|
|
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
-0.4% |
0.3% |
-0.9% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.5% |
-0.6% |
|
|
USD |
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 (YoY) |
13.2% |
13.3% |
13.4% |
|
|
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
82.3 |
78.6 |
78.3 |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
440K |
445K |
455K |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
-3.3% |
-4.9% |
3.2% |
|
Mar. 26 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
8.5 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
|
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
2.2% |
1.0% |
-1.3% |
|
Mar. 27 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.7% |
0.5% |
-2.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
3.7% |
2.5% |
3.9% |
|
|
GBP |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.8% |
0.3% |
-2.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Core Retail Sales (YoY) |
4.2% |
2.8% |
4.4% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
311K |
325K |
321K |
|
|
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
1.6% |
1.6% |
1.6% |
|
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
2.6% |
2.7% |
2.4% |
|
Mar. 28 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.8% |
-2.1% |
|
|
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
GBP |
Business Investment (QoQ) |
2.4% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
|
|
GBP |
Current Account |
-22.4B |
-14.0B |
-22.8B |
|
|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
|
GBP |
GDP (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.7% |
2.7% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
3.29% |
3.42% |
|
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
80.0 |
80.5 |
79.9 |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Expectations |
70.0 |
70.2 |
69.4 |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and the USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Mar. 31 |
EUR |
-0.5% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
EUR |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
USD |
59.5 |
59.8 |
|
|
|
CNY |
50.3 |
50.2 |
|
|
|
CNY |
48.1 |
||
|
Apr. 01 |
EUR |
52.4 |
52.5 |
|
|
|
EUR |
52.1 |
52.3 |
|
|
|
EUR |
51.9 |
51.9 |
|
|
|
EUR |
53.8 |
53.8 |
|
|
|
EUR |
-10K |
-14K |
|
|
|
EUR |
53.0 |
53.0 |
|
|
|
GBP |
56.7 |
56.9 |
|
|
|
USD |
54.0 |
53.2 |
|
|
|
USD |
52.8 |
52.3 |
|
|
Apr. 02 |
GBP |
0.8% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
GBP |
9.6% |
9.4% |
|
|
|
GBP |
63.0 |
62.6 |
|
|
|
USD |
195K |
139K |
|
|
|
USD |
1.2% |
-0.7% |
|
|
|
CNY |
51.0 |
||
|
Apr. 03 |
EUR |
53.5 |
53.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
52.0 |
52.9 |
|
|
|
EUR |
51.4 |
51.4 |
|
|
|
EUR |
54.0 |
54.0 |
|
|
|
EUR |
52.4 |
52.4 |
|
|
|
GBP |
58.1 |
58.2 |
|
|
|
EUR |
-0.6% |
1.6% |
|
|
|
EUR |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
|
|
USD |
-38.80B |
-39.10B |
|
|
|
USD |
53.2 |
51.6 |
|
|
|
USD |
47.5 |
||
|
Apr. 04 |
EUR |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
|
|
USD |
195K |
175K |
|
|
|
USD |
193K |
162K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Mar 31 09:00 Norway
Apr 01 09:30 Belgium
Apr 03 08:30 Spain
Apr 03 09:03 Sweden
Apr 03 15:00 US
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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