Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY gained 29 points to trade at 137.67 as the euro gained steadily after the ECB meeting and press conference. Mr.
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/JPY gained 29 points to trade at 137.67 as the euro gained steadily after the ECB meeting and press conference. Mr. Draghi left markets longing for more information or stimulus. Helping to take investors’ minds off Europe was a pick-up in stocks, which entered a correction yesterday, but rose overnight as investors picked-up some bargains. A fall in jobless claims also helped overcome the earlier weakness, with the Labour Department revealing claims dropped to a better-than-expected 287,000 last week.
Turning to the turmoil in Europe, the European Central Bank announced it is keeping the benchmark interest rate at 0.05 per cent and gave details of its asset purchase program which it announced last month. The bank’s chief Mario Draghi said he will start buying covered bonds this month and other assets in the final three months of the year and the program will last for two years. “The new measures will support specific market segments and play a key role in the financing of the economy,” he said.
“They will thereby further enhance the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, facilitate credit provision to the broad economy and generate positive spill-overs to other markets.” Mr Draghi indicated that the ECB has more ammunition to deploy if needed.
Bad weather this summer, including successive typhoons, may have pushed economic growth down by 0.8 percentage point to 2.4 points in annualized real terms in the July-September quarter, the government said.
The estimate, presented Wednesday by the Cabinet Office to a meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, comes amid growing fears the economy is still lethargic after stalling in the wake of the first stage of the sales tax hike, which raised it to 8 percent on April 1.
“The economy showed signs of some weakness this summer,” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said during the meeting. “We need to carefully monitor how the economy will recover down the road.”
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
USD |
FOMC Member Bullard |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales |
3.3% |
|
-5.7% |
|
|
CNY |
Non-Manufacturing PMI |
54.0 |
|
54.4 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
EUR |
German Factory Orders |
|
-2.5% |
4.6% |
|
|
CAD |
Ivey PMI |
|
|
50.9 |
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 02 08:30 Spain Auctions 1.4% Jan 2020 & 2.75% Oct 2024 Obligations
Oct 02 08:50 France Eur 7-8bn 1.75% May 2023, 1.75% Nov 2024 & 2.75% Oct 2027
Oct 02 15:00 US Announces details of 3/10Y Note & 30Y bond auctions on Oct
Oct 07 06:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Oct 08
Oct 07 09:00 Norway Bond auction
Oct 07 09:15 Austria RAGB auction
Oct 07 9:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Gilt
Oct 07 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 10
Oct 07 17:00 US 3Y Note auction
Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction
Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)
Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP
Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction
Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction
Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction
Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction