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EUR/JPY Fundamental Forecast – February 17, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Feb 16, 2016, 04:41 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY added 17 points to reach 128.03 as the yen continued to weaken on lackluster data and a falling economy. Shinzo

EUR/JPY Fundamental Forecast – February 17, 2016

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY added 17 points to reach 128.03 as the yen continued to weaken on lackluster data and a falling economy. Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, held an emergency meeting with Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), on Friday to discuss recent events. The BoJ slashed interest rates below zero for the first time last month.

“There’s a high chance that the BoJ may take additional easing at the next meeting in March,” said Masamichi Adachi, an economist at JP Morgan. “The downside risks to the BoJ’s outlook on growth and inflation are increasing.”

In Japan, the Bank of Japan started implementing negative interest rates on Tuesday. The benchmark interbank lending rate fell to zero percent but not to negative levels partly because some banks have not fixed their system to deal with negative rates.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD Core Retail Sales (QoQ)  1.4% 1.1% 1.0%  
  NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4)  1.2% 1.4% 1.6%  
  AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes        
  NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ)  1.6%   1.9%  

 

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Dec)     31.4B  
  USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks        
  GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec)   1.9% 2.0%  
  GBP Claimant Count Change (Jan)   -3.0K -4.3K  
  GBP Unemployment Rate (Dec)   5.0% 5.1%  
  USD Building Permits (Jan)   1.200M 1.204M  
  USD Core PPI (MoM) (Jan)   0.1% 0.2%  
  USD Housing Starts (Jan)   1.177M 1.149M  
  USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Jan)   2.5% -2.5%  
  USD PPI (MoM) (Jan)   -0.2% -0.2%  
  CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Dec)     2.58B  
  USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)   0.4% -0.4%  
  USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Feb 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Feb 17 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Feb 17 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn 0.5% Feb 2026 Bund

Feb 17 11:30 UK New Jul 2026 Gilt auction

Feb 18 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Feb 18 11:50 France Holds bond auction

Feb 18 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on Feb 25

Feb 19 11:10 Italy Details of BTP€i/Zero-coupon auction

 

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