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EUR/JPY Monthly Fundamental Forecast August 2015

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Aug 1, 2015, 08:14 UTC

Outlook and Recommendation The EUR/JPY added 29 points to trade at 136.02 as the euro recovered towards the end of the month. The JPY will continue to

EUR/JPY Monthly Fundamental Forecast August 2015

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Outlook and Recommendation

The EUR/JPY added 29 points to trade at 136.02 as the euro recovered towards the end of the month. The JPY will continue to face a depreciating bias on the back of the Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary policy accommodation.

JPY is entering August around the lower end of its two-month range, with movement generally restrained by the offsetting impact of weaker fundamentals and the supportive influence of broader risk aversion. JPY sentiment is bearish; however note that it is off the extended levels observed in early June with a mid-July CFTC short position at $6.3bn.

A differentiated foreign exchange performance is expected to take place through 2016 with stabilization and modest strength anticipated for most currencies with the exception of the Japanese yen (JPY) and the euro (EUR).

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

EURJPY(60 minutes)20150801070038

Major Economic Events In August That You Should Be Monitoring:

Time

Cur.

 

Event

 

Forecast

Previous

 

 

Saturday, August 1, 2015

05:00

  CNY

 

Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

 

50.2

50.2

 

 

Monday, August 3, 2015

05:45

  CNY

 

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

 

 

48.2

 

 

11:55

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

 

51.5

51.5

 

 

12:30

  GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

 

51.6

51.4

 

 

18:00

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

 

53.5

53.5

 

 

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

05:30

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

 

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

08:30

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Aug)

 

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

12:30

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Jul)

 

58.4

58.1

 

 

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

02:45

  NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)

 

0.5%

0.7%

 

 

12:30

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Jul)

 

58.0

58.5

 

 

16:15

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment

 

215K

237K

 

 

18:00

  USD

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

56.2

56.0

 

 

Thursday, August 6, 2015

05:30

  AUD

 

Employment Change (Jul)

 

15.0K

7.3K

 

 

12:30

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production

 

0.2%

-0.6%

 

 

15:00

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (Aug)

 

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

Friday, August 7, 2015

16:30

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)

 

222K

223K

 

 

18:00

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (Jul)

 

53.0

55.9

 

 

Saturday, August 8, 2015

06:00

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Jul)

 

 

46.54B

 

 

Sunday, August 9, 2015

06:00

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Jul)

 

 

1.4%

 

 

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

13:00

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic

 

 

29.7

 

 

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

09:30

  CNY

 

Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)

 

 

6.8%

 

 

12:30

  GBP

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus

 

 

3.2%

 

 

12:30

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (Jul)

 

 

7.0K

 

 

Thursday, August 13, 2015

16:30

  USD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.4%

-0.1%

 

 

Friday, August 14, 2015

10:00

  EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

 

 

0.3%

 

 

13:00

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Jul)

 

 

0.2%

 

 

16:30

  USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.2%

0.4%

 

 

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

12:30

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (Jul)

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, August 20, 2015

12:30

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

-0.2%

 

 

Friday, August 21, 2015

16:30

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

 

 

 

16:30

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

 

 

0.9%

 

 

Monday, August 31, 2015

 

 

Holiday

United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday

 

 

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