Economic data from France, Brexit, and updates from member states on containment measures to provide direction in the day ahead.
French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Oct)
French CPI (MoM) (Nov) Prelim
French GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Final
French HICP (MoM) (Nov) Prelim
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Final
It was a bearish day for the European majors on Thursday, though the losses were minor with the U.S markets closed. The EuroStoxx600 fell by 0.12%, with the DAX30 and the CAC40 declining by 0.02% and by 0.08% respectively.
Economic data from Germany and the ECB’s sentiment towards the Eurozone’s economic outlook pegged the majors back.
Mid-week, Germany announced plans to extend containment measures to further curb the spread of the coronavirus. While progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine remains positive for the markets, the economic damage stemming from the 2nd wave of the pandemic will need assessment.
It was a quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. German consumer sentiment figures were in focus on the day.
In December, the GfK Consumer Climate Index fell from -3.1 to -6.7. Economists had forecast a rise to -2.5.
According to the GfK survey,
From the ECB, the monetary policy meeting minutes were in focus later in the day.
Some key points from the minutes included:
There were no material stats with the U.S markets closed for Thanksgiving.
For the DAX: It was a bearish day for the auto sector on Thursday. Daimler fell by 2.48%, with BMW and Volkswagen declining by 2.08% and by 2.18% respectively. Continental saw a more modest 1.35% loss on the day.
It was also a bearish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank fell by 1.58% and by 0.38% respectively.
From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole slipped by 0.89% and by 0.47% respectively. Soc Gen fell by 1.21%, however, to lead the way down.
It was also a bearish day for the French auto sector. Peugeot fell by 0.73, with Renault sliding by 2.32%.
Air France-KLM continued to find support, rising by 1.94%, while Airbus SE fell by a further 1.86% following Wednesday’s 2.14% slide.
The U.S markets were closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. French consumer spending for October and prelim inflation figures for November are due out. Finalized 3rd quarter GDP numbers are also due out on the day.
We would expect the markets to be relatively nonresponsive to the stats, however. The focus will be on COVID-19 news and Brexit news at the end of the week.
With progress made towards a COVID-19 vaccine, expectations are that containment measures will soon ease. This would support a pickup consumption and economic activity, limiting the impact of backward-looking data. The extent of the economic damage, however, will likely dictate the shape of any economic recovery.
Late in the session, Eurozone consumer confidence figures should also have a muted impact on the majors, barring any major revisions.
From the U.S, there are no material stats, with the U.S markets on a half-day for the Thanksgiving holidays.
Away from the economic calendar, expect COVID-19 news updates and Brexit to also influence.
In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the DAX was down by 32 points.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.