US Dollar Forecast: DXY Steadies as FOMC Minutes and Data Deluge Move Into Focus

Dollar Edges Higher as Traders Brace for Data Dump and FOMC Clarity

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is treading water with a slight upward tilt at the mid-session Monday, as traders brace for a full slate of delayed U.S. economic data.

The index is trading just above 99.306 — the midpoint between the 50-day moving average at 98.570 and the 200-day at 100.040 — giving it a mild upside lean, but no conviction.

Buyers haven’t abandoned the dollar, but they’re not chasing it either. The price action suggests positioning rather than strong directional conviction ahead of Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

Traders Position Ahead of Delayed U.S. Data

With the government shutdown now in the rearview mirror, investors are preparing for a barrage of delayed economic reports. Construction spending, trade balance figures, and the long-awaited September jobs report will hit this week.

While the return of data is welcome, several firms — including Goldman Sachs — warn that the numbers may be outdated and offer little clarity for the Fed’s next move.

That uncertainty is reflected in rate pricing. Fed funds futures now show just over a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, down from over 60% earlier in the month. Recent soft reads from the private sector haven’t been enough to lock in a cut, and gaps in data have clouded the economic picture. Traders will be looking closely at the FOMC minutes for any signal of internal divisions on the path forward.

Cross-Currency Flows Offer Little Resistance

The dollar’s modest gains come against a mostly flat performance across the majors. The yen held near nine-month lows despite Japan’s surprise Q3 contraction, keeping intervention risks in play.

The British pound remains on watch following Friday’s wild ride, with U.K. inflation data up next. The Swiss franc eased off recent highs as equity markets steadied, trimming some haven demand.

Yields Tick Lower but Stay Dollar-Supportive

The 10-year Treasury yield slipped slightly to 4.133% while the 2-year held near 3.612%. The mild pullback reflects pre-data caution more than a shift in sentiment. As long as front-end yields stay firm and risk appetite remains muted, the broader setup leans in the dollar’s favor — even if only slightly.

Technical Outlook: Stuck Between Moving Averages

The DXY continues to trade between its 50-day moving average at 98.570 and the 200-day at 100.040. The 99.306 midpoint — the 50% level between these two trend indicators — is acting as a near-term pivot.

Holding above this level keeps the index leaning higher, but any meaningful upside will likely need a catalyst.

Resistance comes in at 99.463 and 99.676, followed by the recent top at 100.360. Support sits at last week’s low at 98.991.

Bottom Line: Leaning Higher, Not Breaking Out

The dollar isn’t breaking out, but it’s not rolling over either. As long as DXY stays above 99.306, the market retains a slight upward bias. That said, conviction is lacking.

Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of Thursday’s data and FOMC minutes, which could quickly change the tone. Until then, expect rangebound trade with a slight lean to the upside.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.