Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Reversal Tests 200-Day Resistance

Two-Day Bullish Reversal Signals Improving Demand

Demand for natural gas improved on Wednesday as a two-day bullish reversal triggered, leading to a high of $3.59. A daily close above Tuesday’s high of $3.50 and Monday’s high of $3.53 will confirm the short-term reversal, along with the day’s higher daily low of $3.42. At the time of writing natural gas is positioned to close Wednesday’s session with a gain and in the top third of the day’s range.

200-Day Average Caps Recovery as Key Support Levels Hold

Resistance for the day was seen near the 200-day average, which broke as support on Monday. A recovery of the 200-day line would be indicated on a rally above today’s high and confirmed with a daily close above it. Currently, the 200-day average is at $3.56. Support was seen at $3.32 yesterday at the lower boundary of a rising channel and followed a new low for the bearish trend. Whether support holds remains to be seen. If it does not there is lower target zone at $3.26 to $3.24. The lower level is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the full prior upswing, while the initial target is a 78.6% projection of a falling ABCD pattern.

Potential Counter-Trend Rally Hinges on Reclaiming Resistance

Nevertheless, today’s bullish price action shows the potential for a counter-trend rally if the 200-day average can be reclaimed. It is interesting to note that the 2024 peak at $3.64 is a close match to the 200-day line. That price area was also recognized by the market in November/December 2024 and more recently in October of last year. It adds to the potential significance of the price zone and to a bullish recovery, if it occurs. Initial upside targets for a counter-trend rally include a prior swing low at $3.80 and the 10-day average, now at $3.88 and falling.

Symmetry in Prior Corrections Suggests Bottoming Risk Near

Certainly, natural gas is likely very close to a bottom if it has not yet occurred. As of Tuesday’s low, it was down by $2.18 or 39.6% from the 2025 peak at $5.50. On a percentage basis, that is relatively consistent with three prior downswings within the uptrend that followed the 2024 bottom. Those bearish corrections ranged from -36.8% to -41.7%. Once there is symmetry in price, the chance for at least a temporary bottom improves.

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