Aaron Hill
Add to Bookmarks
Depositphotos_8486583_s-2019 (1)

Note—Charts provided by Trading View


Know where GBP/USD is headed? Take advantage now with 

Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Derivatives may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, and seek independent advice if necessary. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) can be obtained either from this website or on request from our offices and should be considered before entering into a transaction with us. Raw Spread accounts offer spreads from 0.0 pips with a commission charge of USD $3.50 per 100k traded. Standard account offer spreads from 1 pips with no additional commission charges. Spreads on CFD indices start at 0.4 points. The information on this site is not directed at residents in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

February has so far witnessed a healthy floor of bids emerge around the 1.1950 neighbourhood, consequently stirring a hammer formation (though we will not know this until the month concludes).

Downstream, 1.1857/1.1352 represents demand, while northbound shines light on ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

In terms of trend, the primary uptrend has been in play since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Albeit off best levels, Tuesday concluded another session mostly unmoved around 1.2130.

Demand at 1.1923/1.2001—an area housing support at 1.1965 (previous Quasimodo resistance)—offers a logical downside target should sellers regain consciousness.

1.2190 tops, shadowed by Quasimodo resistance from 1.2278, are seen as possible upside targets.

RSI fans will note the value remains engaging with the 50.00 centreline, which happens to share space with two converging trendline resistances (yellow box).

H4 timeframe:

Areas to monitor on the H4 chart are the 88.6% Fib level at 1.2162, closely stationed by resistance from 1.2179.

To the downside, swing support is recognised at 1.2087, followed by 1.2075 support (joined by a 50.0% level at 1.2060).

H1 timeframe:

USD bulls went on the offensive Tuesday, prompting bearish bets on EUR/USD following a whipsaw through 1.2150 resistance (a move commonly referred to as a stop run or a bull trap). In one fell swoop, we punched back through the 100-period simple moving average and shook hands with 1.21, which, as you can see, has served well as support during US trading.

Downstream, aside from H4 support priced at 1.2087, H1 demand resides close by at 1.2078/1.2062.

Out of the RSI oscillator, the value bottomed north of oversold terrain and is on course to cross swords with the lower side of a resistance zone between 47.05 and 54.20.

Observed levels:

Outlook mostly unchanged due to lacklustre performance –

Monthly price continues to express interest in higher levels, which may eventually motivate daily buyers.

A short-term support zone forged on the H1 timeframe (green) between the upper side of demand at 1.2078 and the 1.21 figure (between the area, H4 support is plotted at 1.2087), therefore, could attract a bullish scenario today and take the currency pair north of the 100-period simple moving average.


Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

January’s half-hearted shooting star candle (often construed as a bearish indication at peaks) has so far failed to seduce sellers. February, as you can see, trades a touch off session highs, up by about 1.6 percent.

This brings light to 0.8303/0.8082—a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776). In the event sellers regain consciousness, however, long-term demand resides at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply).

In the context of trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

The Australian dollar found itself under pressure against a broadly stronger US dollar (DXY > 90.50) on Tuesday, establishing what many candlestick enthusiasts refer to as a bearish outside reversal.

Upriver, beyond 2021 pinnacles at 0.7820, supply inhabits the 0.7937/0.7890 neighbourhood. Calling for attention to the downside, on the other hand, is trendline support, an ascending level drawn from the low 0.5506.

RSI flow is seen touching gloves with RSI trendline resistance. A downside move here has the 50.00 centreline in sight, while moves north could have the value invade overbought space.

H4 timeframe:

Resistance at 0.7805 made an entrance in the early hours of trade on Tuesday, ultimately guiding price action through support at 0.7769.

As evident from the chart, 0.7769 currently serves as resistance and could ultimately lead things back towards support at 0.7698, a previous Quasimodo resistance. Note, however, that a bullish defence could also emerge around the 0.7727ish region (green – a drop-base-rally demand zone).

H1 timeframe:

Tuesday’s depreciation directed intraday flow south of 0.78 on Tuesday, movement that tested the mettle of 0.7750 support and a nearby 100-period simple moving average.

With RSI flow dipping through a relatively long-standing trendline support, taken from the low 23.72, and space for sellers to stretch their legs south of 0.7750 to at least Quasimodo support from 0.7719 (followed by 0.77), a short-term bearish scene could emerge sub 0.7750.

Observed levels:

Short term, a H1 close below 0.7750 is likely to stir a bearish theme towards 0.77 on the H1 (H1 Quasimodo support is potentially fragile having seen the level tested last Friday).

Longer term, the monthly chart shows buyers are likely to eventually take the wheel, though prior to this, daily action could retreat and retest trendline support, perhaps inspiring a wave of dip-buying.


Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Buyers are beginning to show life on the monthly scale, following January’s bullish engulfing candle.

Up by 1.3 percent, resistance can be seen in the form of a descending line (not considered traditional trendline resistance), etched from the high 118.66, whereas support continues to inhabit 101.70 in the event sellers make a show.

Daily timeframe:

Notably, price action on the daily chart made its way above the 200-day simple moving average at 105.53 yesterday, registering a fifth successive daily advance and testing the walls of supply coming in from 106.33/105.78.

Breaking north of a 200-day simple moving average is generally interpreted as a bullish indication, a move that may tempt buyers to take on the aforementioned supply and reach for another layer of supply arranged at 107.58/106.85.

The RSI indicator is seen edging its way back into overbought territory and also possibly bringing bearish divergence to the table.

H4 timeframe:

In line with the US dollar index staging a strong bullish show and the 10-year US Treasury yield puncturing 1.30 percent, USD/JPY bulls pressed higher from demand at 105.26/105.14 (previous supply).

The October 7 (2020) peak at 106.11 is next on tap, in terms of resistance, with a break unmasking a 127.2% Fib projection at 106.44, shadowed by Quasimodo resistance at 106.58.

H1 timeframe:

Recent bullish flow, as you can see on the H1 chart, saw the unit topple a number of resistances, including psychological resistance at 106.

Assuming buyers maintain a bullish presence above 106, this could stir interest to Quasimodo resistance at 106.27.

The RSI indicator, as you might expect in view of the upside movement since last week, continues to explore overbought territory. Notice that support also formed around the 44.00ish range, a common scenario in a rising market.

Observed levels:

With H1 visibly retesting 106 as support, following an earlier breach, this suggests H4 may attempt to overthrow the October 7 (2020) peak at 106.11. Fuelled on the back of monthly price striving for higher levels, this could have intraday flow draw towards Quasimodo resistance at 106.27 on the H1, followed by the H4 127.2% Fib projection at 106.44.


Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following December’s 2.5 percent advance—movement that stirred major trendline resistance (2.1161)—February has refreshed multi-month highs at 1.3951.

In terms of trend structure, however, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way—April high, 2018. In effect, the aforesaid high represents the next upside objective on the monthly chart.

Daily timeframe:

Despite refreshing 2021 highs on Tuesday, GBP/USD remains testing the spirit of supply at 1.3996/1.3918. Candlestick traders will also note yesterday’s action forged an indecision candle, which could, given the market trending higher since 2020, be interpreted as a bearish cue. Essentially, though, buyers and sellers are in a standoff.

Support on the daily scale can be seen at 1.3755.

RSI action recently broke above the upper edge of a 3-month range between support around 47.00 and resistance at the 66.00 region (the value stands at 67.67), and is on the verge of entering overbought territory.

H4 timeframe:

Early hours Tuesday witnessed price movement puncture the upper side of supply from 1.3942/1.3900 (glued to the lower side of daily supply at 1.3996/1.3918). With many price action traders likely to view this as a bullish cue (sellers consumed at supply), dip-buying could emerge off support from 1.3852.

It should also be noted that a dip below 1.3852 could send price back to demand at 1.3761/1.3789.

H1 timeframe:

Technical studies derived from the H1 chart reveal price action tracking ground south of the 1.39 figure, which could see the pair embrace trendline support, taken from the low 1.3566, fixed together with a nearby 100-period simple moving average.

A test of the aforesaid trendline support, however, could also bring about a whipsaw to neighbouring support at 1.3850.

Observed levels:

The monthly timeframe eyeing 1.4376, in addition to H4 price recently testing the upper edge of supply at 1.3942/1.3900, potentially shines the technical spotlight on H1 trendline support as a possible platform buyers may be attracted to.


The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

Don't miss a thing!
Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Trade With A Regulated Broker