GBP/USD Daily Price Forecast – Long Term Bears May Overtake the Near Term Bulls

The GBP/USD pair opened the day with 1.2932 levels. The cable sustained between 1.2867/1.3013 levels. Today, the GBP/USD pair continued Friday’s struggle for improvements. The cable was trading around 1.2936 levels at 05.15 GMT.

The cross-party talks will continue with the aim of resolving the Brexit deadlock. Both the parties look forward to the meet amid the stress of the upcoming May 23 UK poll. This meeting could provide positive news to the traders in the next hours.

On Friday, few MPs and MEPs urged for a public vote over the unclear commitments to Brexit deal. The negotiations among the parties got held back from the customs union and the Irish border issues. While the members from PM Theresa May’s party demanded her retirement. These factors limited the Brexit resolution in the last week. Hence any news on Brexit today might give thrust for the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD Influencing Events

GBP Specific Events

At 08:10 GMT, the Governor of BoE, Mark Carney, will deliver a speech. The topic of the statement would focus on Investing in Ethnicity & Race. The governor is expected to sign the Race Work Charter today.

At 23:01 GMT, the GfK groups will release the April Consumer Confidence for the UK. The consensus estimates a hike in the previous numbers. They anticipate the figures to come around the negative 12 points to last negative 13 points.

The U.S. Specific Events

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the following events:

• Personal Income MoM for March: The report provides data about the total acquired individual’s income and employment status. The market analyst remains bullish with the numbers to reach near 0.4 percent
• The February Core Personal Consumption Expenditure MoM & YoY: The core PCE excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The market remains in-line with the previous MoM numbers. While the YoY are estimated to reach around 1.7 percent to the prior 1.8 percent
• Personal spending: The last stats recorded around 0.1 percent

Technical Analysis

Though the pair was trading near the two-month low level, the cable remained in the upper Bollinger Band (BB). This position shows the near term momentum in the GBP/USD pair. The pair traded above the 50-days SMA and 100-days SMA, signifying bullish trend in the near term. However, over the long run, the pair may display downtrend as the significant 200-days SMA stood above the pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was leveled above 60 marks, showing active overbuying status. Over to the upside, resistance lines of 1.2963 and 1.3021 levels await the pair.