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GBP/USD Daily Price Forecast – The Highly Bullish-expected US Retails Data May Leave The Cable Badly Wounded

The pair remained silent in the last couple of sessions amid lack of Brexit headlines. The Fundamentals may try to push down the GBP/USD but, the Technicals seem to come for rescue.
Nikhil Khandelwal
closeup Banknotes of the pound sterling

The GBP/USD remained subdued near 1.300 levels since the North American session of April 16. It seems like a straight road with low volatile movements, however, expected to show some abrupt actions later the day. The then change in the cable will get discounted to the outcome of economic events lined up for today.

The picture remains calmer from the Brexit front as the Easter Recess is still going on. The House is expected to commence operations after April 23. In the meanwhile, the cross-party talks seem to show slight progress bestowing the cable near 1.1300 range.

As there is a lack of data from the significant Brexit side, investors eye for the significant events for the day.

Key GBP/USD Impacting Events:

08:30 GMT

The National Statistics will publish the following March figures (Mid Volatile) for the UK:

  • Retail Sales (Both YoY & MoM): The Analysts take an active bearish call for the MoM numbers. They expect the MoM numbers to come around a negative 0.3 percent to the prior positive 0.2 percent. On the other side, the consensus expects the YoY figures to grow 0.6 percent this time.
  • Retail Sales excluding Fuel (Both YoY & MoM): The Market expect a downtrend in the MoM numbers and a slight uplift in the YoY figures.

On a nutshell, the bears seem to rule in the case of the GBP essential events. Things may get worse if reports come even below the bearish estimates.

12:30 GMT

The US Census Bureau will publish the following data for March:

  • Retail Sales Control Group (High Volatile): The Street analyst stay highly bullish on this retail figure, expected to drive the cable down. This time, the market expects a positive 0.4 percent to the previous negative 0.2 percent.
  • Retail Sales excluding Autos and MoM Retail Sales (Mid volatile): Both the numbers had recorded negative figures last time. Notably, the numbers are anticipated favorable this time.

The US Department of Labor will broadcast the following reports(Mid Volatile):

  • Initial Jobless Claims: The consensus estimates a hike in the claims to come around 205 thousand than the previous 196 thousand.
  • Continuing Jobless Claims: The analysts expect an upliftment in the number reaching near 1.720 Million.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD 60 Min 18 April 2019

The significant 100-days and 200-days SMA remained well above the pair alluding a bullish trend in GBP/USD. The Bollinger Bands appeared shrunk with low volatility in the pair since few sessions. The pair was trading near the lower band region of the BB adding points for a near-by bearish call. In the near time, bears could show up while bulls seem to overtake in the long run.

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