GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis November 3, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 07:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD traded in the green but mostly flat today at 1.6002 with little data to support Sterling and the US dollar

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis November 3, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD traded in the green but mostly flat today at 1.6002 with little data to support Sterling and the US dollar gained momentum. Sterling had reached a six-year high against the dollar in mid-July on expectations that the BoE would start hiking interest rates by the end of this year. But those bets have since been pushed well back, with many now not expecting rates to rise until the second half of 2015.

BoE policymakers have this week emphasized that the central bank would leave rates near their record low level for longer.

The US Federal Reserve earlier in the week largely dismissed financial market volatility, a slowdown in Europe and a weak inflation outlook as factors that might undercut progress towards its unemployment and inflation goals. The dollar has gained since Fed officials, led by Chair Janet Yellen, on Oct. 29 confirmed that they will end an asset-purchase program that has added $1.66 trillion to its balance sheet, citing “solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate” even as they maintained a pledge to keep interest rates low for a “considerable time.”

U.S. consumer expenditures decreased 0.2 percent last month, weaker than any economist projected in a Bloomberg survey, after rising 0.5 percent in August, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Incomes increased 0.2 percent, the smallest gain since December.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Household Spending	1.5%	1.9%	-0.3%
JPY	National Core CPI (Sep)	3.0%	3.0%	3.1%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (Oct)	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
EUR	German Retail Sales	-3.2%	-1.0%	1.5%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	French Consumer	-0.8%	-0.3%	0.9%
EUR	Italian CPI (MoM)	0.1%	-0.2%	-0.4%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Oct)	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate	11.5%	11.5%	11.5%
USD	Core PCE Price Index		0.1%	0.1%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Aug)		0.0%	0.0%
USD	Chicago PMI (Oct)		60.0	60.5
USD	UM Consumer Sent		86.4	86.4

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	AIG Manufacturing			46.5
AUD	Building Approvals			3.0%
CNY	Non-Manufacturing PMI			54.0
CNY	HSBC Mfg. PMI			50.4
EUR	Spanish Manufacturing			52.6
EUR	Italian Manufacturing		50.7	50.7
EUR	French Manufacturing		47.3	47.3
EUR	German Manufacturing		51.8	51.8
EUR	Manufacturing PMI		50.7	50.7
GBP	Manufacturing PMI			51.6
USD	ISM Employment		55.0	54.6
USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI		56.7	56.6