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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 18 – 22, 2013 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The GBP/USD regained a few points as the week ended to trade at 1.5516 as traders bought the sterling on the cheap.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The GBP/USD regained a few points as the week ended to trade at 1.5516 as traders bought the sterling on the cheap. According to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), retail sales fell 0.6 percent in the first month of 2013, from a 0.1 percent rise in December and, most importantly, substantially less than the 0.8 percent increase expected. The annualized figure also posted a 0.6 percent decline, its first annual fall in 17 months.
The ONS cited falling sales in the food sector as the main contributor to the decline. Figures show food sales fell 2.6 percent on a year on year basis to their worst level since April 2004. The data also indicates that smaller stores were being outperformed by larger retailers who cited a boost in online sales for their stronger retail sales figures.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Feb 15, 2013 |
1.5516 |
1.5485 |
1.5550 |
1.5461 |
0.19% |
|
Feb 14, 2013 |
1.5486 |
1.5532 |
1.5542 |
1.5476 |
-0.30% |
|
Feb 13, 2013 |
1.5532 |
1.5676 |
1.5689 |
1.5523 |
-0.92% |
|
Feb 12, 2013 |
1.5676 |
1.5656 |
1.5683 |
1.5573 |
0.13% |
|
Feb 11, 2013 |
1.5656 |
1.5800 |
1.5810 |
1.5647 |
-0.91% |
The poor sales numbers highlight consumer woes, especially after Bank of England governor, Sir Mervyn King, announced earlier this week that inflation would continue to rise and would not reach its 2 percent target level in at least 2 years.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of February 11 – 15 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Feb. 12 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-4% |
-2% |
-1% |
|
|
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
|
|
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.3% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.7% |
|
|
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
1.3% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
GBP |
PPI Input (YoY) |
1.8% |
1.1% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
3.0B |
-2.0B |
-0.3B |
|
Feb. 13 |
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.2% |
-0.7% |
|
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.7% |
-0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
10-Year Note Auction |
2.046% |
1.863% |
|
|
Feb. 14 |
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
-0.6% |
-0.5% |
0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
German GDP (YoY) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.6% |
-0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
341K |
360K |
368K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3114K |
3200K |
3244K |
|
Feb. 15 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.6% |
0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
-0.6% |
0.8% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
10.0 |
-2.0 |
-7.8 |
|
|
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
64.2B |
34.3B |
52.4B |
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
76.3 |
74.8 |
73.8 |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 1.6747 USD on April 28, 2011.
Average: 1.5751 USD over this period
Lowest: 1.4229 USD on May 20, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Feb. 19 |
10:00 |
EUR |
35.0 |
31.5 |
|
|
Feb. 20 |
07:00 |
EUR |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
07:00 |
EUR |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
07:45 |
EUR |
0.3% |
||
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-5.0K |
-12.1K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.918M |
0.909M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.925M |
0.954M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.4% |
1.3% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.7% |
2.0% |
|
|
Feb. 21 |
07:58 |
EUR |
43.8 |
42.9 |
|
|
|
08:28 |
EUR |
50.5 |
49.8 |
|
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
-15 |
-20 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
||
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.8% |
1.9% |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
4.90M |
4.94M |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
1.0 |
-5.8 |
|
|
Feb. 22 |
07:00 |
EUR |
-0.6% |
||
|
|
07:00 |
EUR |
0.1% |
||
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
105.0 |
104.2 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
108.5 |
108.0 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
101.3 |
100.5 |
Upcoming Government Bond
Date Time Country
Feb 19 01:30 Japan
Feb 19 09:30 Spain
Feb 20 10:10 Sweden
Feb 20 10:30 Germany
Feb 20 10:30 Portugal
Feb 21 01:30 Japan
Feb 21 09:30 Spain
Feb 21 09:50 France
Feb 21 10:30 UK
Feb 21 10:50 France
Feb 21 16:30 Italy
Feb 21 16:00 US
Feb 21 18:00 US
Feb 22 16:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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