Global Bitcoin (BTC) Adoption Could be 10% Higher By 2030

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin adoption seems to be on the rise.
• Global adoption could shoot up to 10% by 2030.
• The rising adoption coupled with market maturation could aid bitcoin price’s long-term growth.

For the most of this quarter, despite the recent market crash and largely bearish narrative around cryptocurrencies like bitcoin (BTC), the crypto adoption narrative has held well.

According to a new report released on Wednesday, the adoption of bitcoin (BTC) could occur more rapidly than the adoption of past disruptive technologies such as automobiles and electric power.

Bitcoin Adoption Could Skyrocket

The report released by Blockware Intelligence highlighted that the global adoption of bitcoin can most likely hit 10% by 2030.

The firm arrived at this forecast by examining historical adoption curves for the nine last disruptive technologies – automobiles, electric power, smartphones, the internet, and social media, along with the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption since 2009.

The report said:

“All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve pattern, but […] newer network-based technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects.”

By making use of the average and weighted average of historical technology adoption curves, alongside the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption, the report made a bullish prediction about bitcoin’s adoption rate.

Additionally, the report highlighted,

“To forecast the growth period from current state of adoption up to 10% adoption we used a 10-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of Cum Sum Entities Net Growth and excluded outlier values.”

Notably, the adoption forecast up to 10% is predicted using the CAGR of the net entities growth metric. On the other hand, the adoption forecast beyond 10% is forecasted using the average/weighted average of the past adoption curves.

Using the Cumulative Sum of Net Entities Growth and its CAGR of 60%, the report forecasted that global bitcoin adoption would break past 10% in the year 2030. The red line in the chart below represents actual bitcoin adoption, and the green lines represent forecasted bitcoin adoption.

That said, a recent FXEmpire article pointed out how cryptocurrency payments are still on US customers’ list as retailers try to fast forward growth in the sector. The crucial question, however, still remains whether BTC adoption would propel price growth.

Can Adoption Propel Price Rise?

As more and more people on board the bitcoin train and increase adoption of the technology, the value is bound to rise. While it is generally considered that rise in adoption pushes price rise too, the same can’t be used as a scientific short-term trading tool.

Instead, it is essential to remember a quote by the British statistician George Box – “all models are wrong, but some models are useful.” Much like other prediction models, the report released by Blockware also serves as a conceptual guide for long-term Bitcoin investors.

At press time, BTC was trading for the price of $29,079, noting a 3.81% decrease over the last day. BTC’s tussle with the $30,000 price range has been going on since May 10.

Interestingly, FXEmpire earlier reported how macro indicators like the MVRV ratio presented a strengthening narrative of BTC as Digital Gold.

Last year, blockchain data platform Chainalysis revealed that global adoption of BTC and cryptocurrency surged 881% from July 2020 to June 2021. Notably, Vietnam had the highest cryptocurrency adoption at that time, followed by India and Pakistan.

Thus, as the adoption of BTC increases, the price can also see decent long-term growth.