Gold and Silver Analysis: Strong 2025 Gains Signal More Upside Amid Fed Uncertainty

Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) prices dropped during the last day of 2025. This drop was developed due to the thin liquidity at the end of the year and Federal Reserve uncertainty. Moreover, the FOMC minutes showed mixed opinion about the rate path, with some members supporting a pause, and others willing to make further cuts if inflation continues to ease. This uncertainty led to a slight drop in gold ,and the price of gold traded at around $4,320 at the end of the year.

However, the gold market experienced a good year with a strong year-on-year growth in 2025. This high gain was triggered by the fact that U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a sweeping global tariff policy in April. These policies induced demand for safe haven assets, which was aided by record buying by central banks and surging demand for gold-backed ETFs.

The price action in the gold market is still constructive, which indicates further upside in 2026. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions are still an underlying support in the precious metals market. Hopes for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are lowered amid reports of attacks on Russian leadership sites. Meanwhile, Middle East instability increased with the declaration of full-scale war by Iran and the Saudi air strikes in Yemen. These risks are still not resolved, and gold’s consolidation at high levels indicates more upside for 2026.

Gold Technical Analysis

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has reached the support for an ascending broadening wedge pattern. The price continued to fall during the last week of 2025 as a result of profit-taking and thin liquidity.

However, the year 2026 starts with strong support in the gold market. A break below $4,200 would signal further downside to the $4,000 level. On the other hand, a respect of support at $4,300 and a break above $4,400 would put buying pressure towards $4,600 region. As long as the price is above $4,000, the gold market is likely to continue in a bullish trend in 2026.

The 4 hour chart for spot gold shows the price has broken the red support zone at the $4,360 level. However, the price is consolidating above the black dotted trendline support. This support is holding in the $4,200 to $4,250 region and a break below this zone would likely lead to another decline in early 2026. However, the respect of support is likely and will induce another buying momentum.

Silver Technical Analysis

The daily chart for spot silver indicates the price reached strong resistance at $84 on 29 December 2025. The price continued to fall from this resistance because of the importance of this area of resistance. However, the price is testing good support around $70.

A break below $70 will signal further downside to the strong support zone between the $60 to $65 region. As long as support at $60 holds, the price of silver will probably move toward the $100 region in 2026.

The 4 hour chart for spot silver shows that the price reached the strong resistance area of $83 to $85 and continued to consolidate above the $70 area. A break below $70 will cause another drop towards the $60 region. However, the overall picture is still bullish and this correction is due to the profit-taking during the holidays.

Us Dollar Technical Analysis

The daily chart of the USD Index shows that the index continues to trade below the 50 and 200-day SMA’s. However, the 50-day SMA is now meeting the 200-day SMA, pointing to price uncertainty. The intersection of the moving averages is a suggestion of a pending move in the USD Index. However, the overall picture is still bearish and it will take a break below 96.50 to trigger further downside in the USD Index.

The 4 hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows the formation of a double top pattern at the 100.50 level. The index broke the neckline of the double top pattern at the 99 level and continues to go lower.

A break below the 97.50 level will indicate further downside towards 96.50 level. However, a recovery above the 99 level will show more upside towards 100.50. The index is consolidating in a tight range and needs a breakout in any of this region to see the next move.