Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at 33 and could potentially reach zero in the coming days, an extremely rare occurrence that could signal an important buying opportunity.
Gold 2022 versus 2026
Ideally, gold will hold the lower quartile of the gold cycle indicator, as it did around the 2022 midterm elections. However, a decisive break below that boundary would shift my outlook toward a deeper correction, potentially taking gold toward $3,500 before a durable bottom forms.
Gold
Gold is approaching critical support near $4,000, and a brief move below the prior lows remains possible. However, I would need to see progressive closes below $3,875 to confirm a more significant breakdown. Otherwise, I’ll be watching for evidence of a durable bottom forming between now and the first week of November.
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Silver has breached its July low, and further downside follow-through could open the door to a test of the dashed trendline near $50.00.
Platinum
Platinum is approaching its midyear lows, and a retest of the $1,500 support level remains possible before month-end.
GDX
Miners continue to break down, with the next support level near $78.00. It would take a sustained decline in gold below $3,875 to increase the likelihood of miners retesting their July lows.
GDXJ
Junior miners need to establish support near $98.00 to avoid a potential retest of their July lows.
SILJ
Silver juniors are approaching their July lows. If silver continues to slide toward $50.00, SILJ could potentially retest the $20.00–$21.00 support zone.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 remains less than 3% below its all-time high, but the risk of a technology-led correction is growing. My concern is that a sharp breakdown in equities could trigger additional selling pressure in precious metals, potentially extending their current declines before a durable bottom forms.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is in a similar technical setup to May, and further downside follow-through below $80,000 in the coming days could trigger a swift decline. However, it would likely take a much deeper correction in equities, potentially a 20% decline in the S&P 500, to push Bitcoin to a new low in Q4.
Conclusion
Precious metals and miners could establish significant lows between now and mid-November.
However, if Democrats gain control of both the House and Senate in the November 3 elections, a broader market selloff could follow, potentially dragging gold closer to $3,500 before a durable bottom emerges.
The next few weeks will be critical in determining the direction of precious metals. I’ll continue monitoring price action closely and update members as soon as I see convincing evidence that a lasting bottom is forming.
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