Gold Price Forecast – Breakout or Convincing Fake out?

In my article, October Bounce into a November Breakdown, I laid out the potential for a rebound into the October 30th Fed announcement. From there, I felt we could see gold reverse lower and enter the next phase of a 6-month cycle decline. For this to play out, there needs to be a pause in the Fed rate-cutting cycle (perceived or real) with no rate cut projected for December.

INCOMPLETE CYCLE

Gold tends to form intermediate cycle lows about every 6-months. Each 6-month cycle is typically comprised of three lesser cycles (blue arrows) lasting on average about 55-trading days. To register an intermediate decline, prices need to break the previous lesser cycle low. In this case, gold needs to slip below $1465.

Furthermore, the SLO Stochastics (top indicator in the chart above) should at least reach mildly oversold levels to encourage a 6-month low. It never fell below 50 in October.

To learn more about the 6-month gold cycle, check out my article Gold – The Next Buying Opportunity.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit https://goldpredict.com/