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Gold Price Forecast – Gold Approaches Cycle Lows as Inflation Recedes

By:
AG Thorson
Published: Jun 14, 2024, 13:04 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Metals and Miners are in the timing window for cycle lows and prices may be very close to bottoming.
  • Gold needs to close above Wednesday’s $2358 high to reverse the post-Fed breakdown and support an immediate bottom.
  • Headline inflation continues to decelerate and at this rate CPI could move towards 2.5% by October; provided we don’t get a spike in oil.
Gold bullion, FX Empire

In this article:

Base Effects

The strong inflation prints of 0.5% and 0.4% last August and September are set to expire in the coming months. May CPI was flat at 0.0%, and June is projected at 0.1%. If monthly inflation remains tame at 0.2% or lower, the headline number could be nearing 2.5% by October, giving the Fed the green light to start cutting.

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Cycle Update

Gold Daily

Gold officially closed below the 50-day EMA and finished inside our cycle target box. A daily close above Wednesday’s high ($2358.80) would reverse the post-Fed breakdown and support a bottom. Once a bottom is confirmed, our work supports a strong rally into August.

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Silver

Silver tagged the 50-day EMA and finished inside our target box. Closing back above $30.00 would support a cycle low. The setup remains strong, and we think silver could shoot much higher from here.

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GDX

Miners dipped to fresh lows and closed progressively below the 50-day EMA. We remain in the June target box. A daily finish above $34.06 would support a bottom.

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GDXJ

Juniors are well within the June target area, and a close above $42.65 would support a cycle low and new advance.

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SILJ

Silver juniors closed well below the 50-day EMA, reaching the mid-range of our target box. Prices need a close above $11.59 to support a bottom. Otherwise, the decline could extend into next week.

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Conclusion

Metals and miners are very close to completing cycle lows. From here, we expect aggressive upside into August or September with a $2800 target for gold.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For daily market updates, consider subscribing www.GoldPredict.com.

About the Author

AG Thorsoncontributor

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.

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