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Gold Price Forecast – Prices Surge Over Renewed Banking Fears

By:
AG Thorson
Updated: Mar 1, 2024, 19:33 GMT+00:00

It’s been a rough start to the year for precious metals and miners, but that may be changing. 

Gold Bull market, FX Empire

In this article:

Troubled banks are reappearing as we near the anniversary of the Silicon Valley Bank failure (March 11, 2023).

A decisive breakout in gold above $2100 would support the beginning of a powerful advance.

Banking Crisis 2.0?

New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) appointed a new CEO effective immediately after acknowledging control issues and a 10x increase in Q4 losses. The stock plunged 28% intraday, hitting the lowest level since 1996.

NYCB Daily Chart

New York Community Bank Corp is down over 50% this year, and it may be the next bank to go into FDIC receivership (pure speculation).

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Fear and Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index finished Thursday at 79, and we could see 80+ in the coming weeks. Last July, it reached 83 before stocks rolled over. March is shaping up to be a pivot month once again.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed?utm_source=business_ribbon

Gold Cycle Indicator

Our Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 102 on Thursday, supporting a bottom and prevailing uptrend.

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Gold

Gold has been consolidating in a triangle formation after spiking to $2152 in early December. Progressive closes above the $2070 area would support a bullish breakout. Another meltdown in banking may be just what the doctor ordered.

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Silver

Silver needs a close above $23.00 to form a swing low and set the stage for an attack on $23.50. Until then, the risk of more downside remains.

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Platinum

Platinum is dancing near the trendline, threatening a breakdown. Prices need to get back above $920 to promote a bottom.

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GDX

Gold Miners gapped higher on Thursday, and prices are trying to bottom (once again). A close above $27.29 is needed to establish a cycle low. Until then, expect more chop.

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GDXJ

Gold Junior miners must clear $33.25 to recommend a low.

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SILJ

Silver juniors formed a swing low, and the MACD entered a bullish crossover. Prices must close above $8.52 to secure a bottom.

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NEM

Newmont formed a swing low and gapped higher. I see the potential for a bottom as long as prices hold above $29.87 in March.

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S&P 500

The S&P 500 made a new closing high, and I think we could see a peak in March. The Fear and Greed Index (currently 79) could soon exceed 80, supporting the conditions for a top.

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Conclusion

The next big surge in gold may be starting, and the $2100 level is critical. A sustained post-fed breakout would support a notable rally into the third quarter (2024 elections). Gold miners are stupid cheap and could play catch up if gold soars.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For Premium updates and daily market commentary, please visit www.GoldPredict.com.

About the Author

AG Thorsoncontributor

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.

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