The current correction closely resembles the 2022 midterm election pattern, when gold established a major bottom just days before voters went to the polls. With sentiment extremely bearish and next week’s elections approaching, a significant turning point could be near.
- Gold’s 2022 Pattern: Gold is following a remarkably similar correction to 2022, suggesting a major bottom could form within days.
- Metals and Miners: Gold, silver, and mining stocks are approaching critical support levels that could mark the end of the correction.
- Election Wild Card: Next week’s election results could trigger an immediate reversal or extend the selloff into December, potentially pushing gold toward $3,500.
Gold 2022 vs. 2026
Gold experienced a similar correction in 2022, which was also a midterm election year. Prices peaked in the first quarter, established an initial low in July, rallied into August, and then formed a final bottom just days before the November elections. The current setup closely resembles that pattern, suggesting gold could bottom any day now.
WTIC
Crude oil remains a wild card as we enter November. A sustained breakout above $105 could trigger a rapid advance toward $120. If Republicans lose big on November 3, Trump could take an aggressive stance toward Iran. This is purely speculation, but it’s a geopolitical risk worth keeping on the radar.
Gold
Gold is approaching critical support near $3,950, and I believe a bottom could form any day, similar to what we saw in 2022. However, if Democrats sweep both the House and Senate next week, a broader equity selloff could drag gold below $3,800. Under that scenario, I would shift my focus to a potential bottom around the December 9 Fed announcement.
In short, price action surrounding next week’s elections should help determine whether gold establishes an immediate bottom or extends its correction for another month.
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Silver
Silver is trading within a falling wedge pattern and is currently retesting its lower trendline. With prices approaching this critical support, a bottom could be imminent.
Silver Monthly
The monthly chart also points to the potential for a backtest of the breakout area near $49.50.
Platinum
Platinum is breaking below $1,500, raising the possibility of a further decline toward support at the lower trendline.
GDX
Miners have surrendered most of their August gains, with prices approaching the final gap support near $76.00. I expect miners to outperform gold going forward, and establishing a bottom above the July low would strengthen that outlook.
GDXJ
Junior miners have retraced nearly all of their August gains and are approaching final gap support near $92.50, a key level to watch for a potential bottom.
SILJ
Silver juniors need consecutive closes below $23.00 to confirm a breakdown toward $20.00. Conversely, a close back above $24.00 next week would signal a potential bottom.
NEM
Newmont remains the market leader, and I expect it to be among the first miners to confirm a durable bottom. I’ll be watching for sustained closes above the downtrend line as an early indication that a meaningful reversal is underway.
S&P 500
In my view, the stock market remains vulnerable to a sharp post-election selloff, particularly if Democrats sweep both the House and Senate next week. A break below 7,500 could trigger accelerated selling, potentially dragging metals and miners lower into December.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is rolling over, and consecutive closes below $75,000 would confirm a breakdown and open the door to fresh lows in Q4. In my view, this bearish scenario would likely require a sharp post-election stock market selloff.
Conclusion
Sentiment toward metals and miners is extremely bearish, suggesting prices may be approaching a significant bottom. If prices stabilize and begin to strengthen following next week’s elections, it could signal that the lows are in place and a new uptrend is beginning.
However, if gold breaks below $3,800 after the elections, the correction could extend toward $3,500, with a potential bottom forming around the December 9 Fed decision.
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