Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 20 – 24, 2013 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 20:00 GMT+00:00

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations: Gold tumbled again on Friday to end a week of a continuous down trend. Gold opened the week at 1436.55 and lost close

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 20 – 24, 2013 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold tumbled again on Friday to end a week of a continuous down trend. Gold opened the week at 1436.55 and lost close to 100.00 this week to end the week at 1357.75. With speculation over possibility of rollback in stimulus by the US Federal Reserve high in the market, commodities were seen oscillating. Comments by the US Fed official that the central bank may consider to wind down its asset buying program by this summer strengthened dollar. The greenback held firm near the ten month highs, weighing on commodities. Spot gold was bound south, stretching losses for the seventh consecutive session and the longest losing streak in four years. Fall in ETF holding pressured on prices amidst strengthening dollar and physical demand from China and India was also muted.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
May 17, 2013	1357.75	1385.45	1391.25	1353.85	-2.01%
May 16, 2013	1385.55	1394.55	1396.65	1368.05	-0.67%
May 15, 2013	1394.95	1428.35	1428.55	1388.05	-2.37%
May 14, 2013	1428.75	1433.95	1444.15	1419.95	-0.38%
May 13, 2013	1434.15	1436.55	1438.65	1424.95	-0.17%

Investors have been pulling out of the gold market as the stock market keeps climbing and the dollar gains strength. The dollar made gains against most major currencies Friday. old fell on Friday for a seventh straight session, in its longest losing streak since March 2009, as the dollar strengthened and investors cut exposure to the precious metal, fearing further drops and choosing equities instead.

Gold has lost nearly 6 percent of its value in the six sessions through Thursday as stocks gained on the back of strong US economic data, and on fears the Federal Reserve could end its bullion-friendly bond buying program. The metal is down 17 percent for the year and is on track for its worst weekly decline in a month. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell to their lowest in four years.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of May 13-17 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
May 13	CNY	Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)	20.6%	21.0%	20.9%
	CNY	Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)	9.3%	9.5%	8.9%
	CNY	Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)	12.8%	12.8%	12.6%
	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	-0.9%	0.8%	2.3%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.4%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	-0.3%	-0.5%
May 14	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	1%	2%	-2%
	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%
	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	1.2%	1.2%	1.2%
	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	36.4	38.3	36.3
	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.0%	0.4%	0.3%
	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	27.6	27.3	24.9
	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.2%
May 15	EUR	French GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%
	EUR	German GDP (QoQ)	0.1%	0.3%	-0.7%
	EUR	German GDP (YoY)	-1.4%	0.2%	0.1%
	EUR	French CPI (MoM)	-0.2%	0.1%	0.8%
	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.2%	-0.1%	0.0%
	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	0.4%	0.7%	1.0%
	GBP	Claimant Count Change	-7.3K	-3.0K	-9.9K
	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
	USD	PPI (MoM)	-0.7%	-0.6%	-0.6%
	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-1.4	4.0	3.0
	USD	PPI (YoY)	0.6%	0.8%	1.1%
	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%
	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	-13.5B	43.4B	-13.3B
	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	-0.2%	0.3%
May 16	EUR	French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.3%
	EUR	CPI (YoY)	1.2%	1.2%	1.2%
	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)	1.0%	1.0%	1.5%
	USD	Building Permits	1.017M	0.945M	0.890M
	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
	USD	CPI (MoM)	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.2%
	USD	Housing Starts	0.853M	0.973M	1.021M
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	360K	330K	328K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3009K	3000K	3013K
	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.1%	1.3%	1.5%
	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	1.7%	1.8%	1.9%
	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	-5.2	2.4	1.3
May 17	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	83.7	78.0	76.4

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1457.33 over this period

Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
May 21	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.8%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-1.1%	-0.1%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.3%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	0.8%	0.4%
May 22	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.7%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.0%	-0.5%
	11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-19	-25
	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	5.00M	4.92M
May 23	02:45	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI		50.40
	07:58	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	44.8	44.4
	08:28	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	48.5	48.1
	08:58	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	47.0	46.7
	09:30	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	0.3%	0.3%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.7%
	09:30	GBP	GDP (YoY)	0.6%	0.6%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.0%	-0.5%
	15:00	USD	New Home Sales	425K	417K
May 24	07:00	EUR	German GDP (QoQ)		0.1%
	07:00	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	6.2	6.2
	07:00	EUR	German GDP (YoY)		-1.4%
	09:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	104.5	104.4
	09:00	EUR	German Current Assessment	107.2	107.2
	09:00	EUR	German Business Expectations	101.6	101.6
	13:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.5%	-1.5%
	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.8%	-5.8%