Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver Approach Key Levels Amid US-EU Trade Deal

Gold (XAUUSD) prices show uncertainty at support and remain under pressure following the breakthrough US–EU trade deal. The agreement, which ends months of tariff threats, reduces geopolitical risk. As market sentiment improves, demand for safe-haven assets tends to weaken. This shift has pushed gold prices lower towards the support zone.

The deal includes a 15% US tariff on EU goods, half the initially threatened 30%. It also opens European markets to certain US exports tariff-free. President Trump and EU Commission President Von der Leyen both praised the agreement, signalling improved diplomatic and economic ties. This optimism reduces the urgency to hedge with gold.

Additionally, the EU committed to investing $600 billion in US sectors, including the military and energy sectors. This massive investment strengthens the US growth outlook and supports the US Dollar. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, adding further downward pressure.

Although not all tariffs were lifted, the market sees this as a de-escalation of trade tensions. Investors may rotate into risk assets amid hopes for increased global trade and economic cooperation. The JOLTS job openings data, GDP, Core PCE price index, and nonfarm payrolls will be the key events of the week and will define the next move for gold and silver (XAG) prices.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAUUSD Daily Chart – Ascending Triangle Pattern

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has dropped from the $3,450 resistance area and is attempting to break below the ascending triangle pattern. Friday’s decline closed near the 50-day SMA, suggesting that further downside on Monday would be a bearish signal for the gold market.

However, the 100-day SMA offers key support at $3,250. A break below this level could trigger a sharper decline in gold prices. Despite the short-term weakness, the broader trend remains bullish, and this dip may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

The 4-hour chart also shows that spot gold failed to break above the $3,430 resistance area and continued its downward move. Strong support remains near the $3,250-$3,230 level, and a break below this area could trigger further downside. The short-term price action is approaching oversold levels, as indicated by the RSI.

Silver Technical Analysis

XAGUSD Daily Chart – Correction from Overbought Region

The daily chart for spot silver shows that the price has continued to face strong resistance near the $39.50 level and has initiated a correction. Strong support remains at the $37 and $36 areas, with a break below $36 likely to trigger further downside toward the $35 support. This correction will be considered a strong buying opportunity for investors within the $35–$36 range. The $35 level now marks a key support zone, as it forms the neckline of the Adam and Eve pattern, as shown in the chart below.

XAGUSD 4-Hour Chart – Correction

The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows that the price is correcting lower from the $39.50 resistance level and approaching the $37 area. The orange zone between $35 and $36 remains a strong support region. A correction toward this zone will be considered a buying opportunity for traders and investors.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Rebound

The daily chart for the USD Index shows that it failed to break above the 50-day SMA and initiated a strong decline. Despite last week’s rebound, the index remains under bearish pressure. This weakness in the USD Index is likely to support higher prices in the gold and silver markets. However, a strong recovery above 99 would signal a potential move toward the 100.65 area, which could trigger a corrective phase in gold.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index indicates that the index has broken above the descending channel pattern. However, it is now retesting the channel’s upper boundary. A break below the 96 level would signal a return to the inside of the channel and suggest further downside toward the 90 area. Conversely, a recovery above 100.50 would confirm further upside toward the 102 level.