Gold (XAUUSD) prices paused after hitting a record high of $3,578.50 and pulled back toward the breakout level near $3,500 before preparing for the next upward move. The retreat reflects short-term profit-taking ahead of the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls data release. However, prices are now rebounding above $3,550, helping to stabilize the momentum.
On the other hand, recent US data has strengthened the case for rate cuts. Weak labor figures and ongoing global risks continue to support demand for gold. US Initial Jobless Claims increased by 8,000 to 237,000, exceeding market expectations, as shown in the chart below.
Moreover, the ADP job numbers and jobless claims point to softness in the labor market. Although productivity increased and labor costs declined, hiring momentum appears to be slowing.
The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report will be crucial for gold’s next move.
Gold Technical Analysis
XAUUSD Daily Chart – Breakout from Ascending Triangle
The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has broken above the ascending triangle pattern, reaching new record highs above the $3,500 region. This breakout, following four months of consolidation, is significant and suggests that gold prices are likely to continue rising in the coming weeks.
Strong support now lies between the $3,450 and $3,500 levels. However, the RSI on the daily chart indicates that the price is currently overbought. After a period of consolidation, gold prices are expected to resume their upward trend.
Gold Price Forecast
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See all Gold forecastsXAUUSD 4-Hour Chart – Positive Price Development
The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that prices have broken above the $3,500 region and continue to move higher. The 4-month consolidation formed a bullish price structure, as illustrated in the chart below.
However, gold is currently correcting from its record highs toward the $3,500 region, as the short-term outlook remains extremely overbought. Once this correction is complete, the gold market is likely to resume its upward trend.
Silver Technical Analysis
XAGUSD Daily Chart – Strong Bullish Momentum
The daily chart for spot silver (XAG) shows that the price has broken above the $39.40 level after forming strong bullish price action above the $35-$36 level. The repeated formation of bullish hammer candles at the 50-day SMA signals strong buying interest. The subsequent breakout above $39.40 suggests that silver prices will likely continue toward the $42 to $43 resistance area. However, the RSI on the daily chart indicates that silver is currently overbought, suggesting a correction may occur before the next upward move.
XAGUSD 4-Hour Chart – Positive Price Development
The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows a bullish formation above the $39.00 area. Prices have formed multiple inverted head and shoulders patterns before breaking above the $39 level. This breakout sets up potential targets in the $42 to $43 region. However, the short-term market may experience strong consolidation before the next surge higher.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis
US Dollar Daily – Bear Flag
The daily chart for the USD Index shows that it has formed a bear flag pattern. However, the index is currently consolidating at the support level of the pattern, reflecting price uncertainty and a lack of momentum.
The market is awaiting Friday’s non-farm payrolls data, which will likely determine the next move in the US Dollar Index. This data will also play a critical role in shaping the direction of the gold and silver markets.
US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation
The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the index has been consolidating within a tight range between the $96 and $100 region. As long as it remains below the $100.50 resistance, the outlook for the US Dollar Index remains strongly bearish. However, a break above $100.50 could push the index toward the $102 level.
