Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver Technical Analysis: $3,400 and $35 Levels in Focus Amid Iran Tensions

Gold (XAUUSD) consolidates below $3,400 and searches for direction amid the ongoing geopolitical crisis. Reports indicate that President Trump approved strike plans on Iran, heightening fears of a broader regional conflict. This development has increased demand for safe havens, prompting investors to turn to gold as uncertainty rises. Similarly, the silver (XAGUSD) market has broken above $35 and continues to advance on escalating geopolitical instability.

Despite strong safe-haven demand, gold remains capped below $3,400 after the Federal Reserve signaled only one rate cut for 2026. The Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% and raised its core PCE inflation projection to 3.1%. As of April 2025, the core PCE inflation rate stands at 2.5%, as shown in the chart below.

Moreover, the 2025 GDP growth outlook was lowered to 1.4% due to uncertain trade policies and economic challenges in the US and China. Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to rise to 4.5%. These projections reflect a cautious stance, maintaining tight monetary policy and limiting gold’s rally.

The US Dollar Index rebounded from the 98 support level, supported by stable Treasury yields and Powell’s comments on tariffs and inflation. Real yields remained at 2.081%, adding pressure to the gold market. However, the World Gold Council reported stronger demand from central banks for bullion, which may support prices in the longer term. Traders now await the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, expected to improve from -4 to -1, as the next potential catalyst.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAUUSD Daily Chart – Consolidation below $3,400 Levels

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating near the edge of an ascending triangle. A break above this triangle will likely trigger a strong upward move to $4,000. The formation of an ascending triangle within an ascending broadening wedge indicates strong volatility and bullish price action. Moreover, the price remains above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, signaling continued positive momentum.

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating below $3,430. The pullback from this level indicates a failed attempt to break higher, suggesting continued consolidation. However, a break above the $3,500 region will likely trigger the next strong upward move.

Silver Technical Analysis

XAGUSD Daily Chart – Break above $35 Levels

The daily chart for spot silver shows that the price has broken above the $35 area after building positive momentum above the 50- and 200-day SMAs. However, the RSI has reached the overbought region, indicating a possible correction from the $37 area. Strong support lies between the $35 and $35.50 levels.

XAGUSD 4-Hour Chart – Positive Price Development

The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows strong bullish price action above the $31.80 area. Multiple attempts and rebounds from this level have triggered positive momentum. A break above $34.50 has further accelerated the bullish move.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Rebound

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows a rebound from the 98.00 region toward the 50-day SMA at 99.55. A break above the 50-day SMA could trigger a move toward the 100.65 area. As long as the index stays below 100.65, it is likely to continue lower. A break below 98.00 would confirm further downside in the US Dollar Index.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it is trading within a descending channel. The index is consolidating near the channel’s resistance around the 99.00 area and awaits direction. Immediate resistance lies at 100.50. A break above 100.50 will likely trigger a move toward 102.00. However, failure to break this level may signal further downside.