Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver Technical Analysis Amid Fed Cut Hopes and Delayed U.S. Data

Gold (XAUUSD) prices edged higher toward $4,070, supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The market reacted positively to comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who suggested that policy easing may not conflict with the Fed’s inflation goals. This shift in tone pushed bond yields lower and lifted gold prices.

The market is betting on a December rate cut, with a 70% probability, up from 40% last week. This change in expectations provided strong support for gold’s bullish momentum ahead of key U.S. data releases.

However, mixed signals from other Fed officials and upcoming inflation data could cap gold’s upside in the near term. The market will receive PPI and retail sales data this week, both of which may influence gold prices. If PPI or retail sales come in stronger than expected, concerns about inflation may resurface. This would likely boost the U.S. dollar and put pressure on gold.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAUUSD Daily Chart – Symmetrical Triangle

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern. Although the price dropped on Friday, it rebounded from strong support at the lower boundary of the triangle and turned higher.

Seasonal consolidation during November and December may keep the price range-bound. A breakout is likely to develop in the coming days, either above $4,250 or below $3,900. A break above $4,250 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. On the other hand, a drop below $3,900 would signal further downside before the next bullish leg begins.

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, as indicated by the black dotted trendlines. The chart illustrates price compression within a narrow range, driven by seasonal effects.

This tight range-bound behavior may continue over the next few days. As December approaches, a breakout above $4,250 would be a strong bullish signal and could define the next significant move to the upside.

Silver Technical Analysis

XAGUSD Daily Chart – Correction

The daily chart for spot silver (XAG) shows that the price has reached the $54.50 level and formed a double‑top pattern, turning lower after hitting record highs. The price also touched the 50 day SMA and rebounded on Friday.

However, seasonal corrections are keeping the silver range-bound. Moreover, the current narrow price range suggests consolidation may continue over the next few days. A break below $45 would indicate further downside toward the $41 area. However, a breakout above $54.50 would likely trigger a strong surge in the silver market.

XAGUSD 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

Silver prices are showing strong consolidation between the $45.80 and $54.40 levels. The correction from the recent record high down to $49.30 has triggered a rebound. However, prices are likely to remain range-bound within this zone over the next few days until a breakout develops.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Key Level Test of 100.50

The daily chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows that the index has broken below the 200-day SMA and is consolidating just below the key resistance level at 100.50.

A breakout above 100.50 would signal the next move toward the 102 level. However, a break below the 98 level would open the door to further downside toward 96.50. The index is currently trading within a range after rebounding from its long-term support level at 96.50. A decisive move above 100.50 will confirm further upside momentum towards 102 level.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for the U.S. Dollar Index shows strong consolidation between the 96.50 and 100.50 levels. The rebound from the long-term support at 96.50 was constructive. However, the broader consolidation pattern suggests that a breakout above 100.50 is needed to confirm further upside in the U.S. Dollar Index.