Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Rally Eyes $4200 as Fed Cut Bets and Trade Fears Intensify

Gold Price Hits Record High at $4179.94 as Fed Cut Bets and Trade Tensions Support Safe-Haven Demand

Spot gold (XAU/USD) pushed to a new all-time high of $4179.94 during early Tuesday trade, fueled by renewed U.S.-China trade concerns and rising confidence in a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. With no technical resistance above, traders now have the $4200.00 handle in sight.

At 15:29 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $4138.94, up $28.60 or +0.70%.

Watching $4110.33 — Will Bulls Defend Monday’s Close?

As of mid-session Tuesday, gold remains well bid, but the prior settlement at $4110.33 is now a key intraday pivot. A close below that level later today would form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, signaling a possible momentum shift.

Further weakness below $3944.43, the last confirmed swing bottom, would break the “higher-top, higher-bottom” pattern and suggest a shift in trend. That said, the broader uptrend remains intact — gold is still trading well above its 50-day moving average at $3622.71, keeping bullish sentiment in place for now.

Fed Expectations, Trade Risks Continue to Support Gold

The rally remains underpinned by falling yields and dovish monetary policy bets. Traders are now pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting, followed by another in December. Attention is on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the NABE conference this afternoon for further policy signals.

On the rates side, the U.S. 10-year yield fell to a session low of 4.026% earlier Tuesday, briefly breaking below the key 4% level before rebounding. The 2-year yield is down to 3.501%. These drops continue to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Safe-haven demand is also firming as U.S.-China tensions escalate. President Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs and China’s rare earth export curbs have rattled risk sentiment. A potential meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping later this month remains a wildcard, but for now, the geopolitical tone is risk-off.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish While Above $4110.33, Eyes on $4200.00 Breakout

The short-term outlook stays bullish while price holds above Monday’s close at $4110.33. A breakout through $4179.94 would put $4200.00 in play, with no nearby resistance on the chart. A close below $4110.33 would mark a potential topping signal, with downside risk toward $3944.43 and stronger support at the 50-day MA near $3622.71. For now, pullbacks continue to draw dip-buying interest.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.