Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: $3,500 and $36.52 Resistance Levels Eyed

Market Overview

Gold prices edged slightly lower in early Monday trading, with spot gold (XAU/USD) down to $3,415.00 after briefly touching a high of $3,452, its strongest level since April 22. The yellow metal remains elevated amid rising geopolitical risk and growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative stance in the coming months.

Despite a strong open to the Asian session, intraday selling pressure emerged as investors turned cautious ahead of the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.1% to $3,448.10, while spot gold held firm above the $3,400 threshold, a critical support zone.

“The break above $3,400 marks a clear shift in sentiment,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. “But the market is pausing here, waiting for signals from the Fed. If we break above $3,500, it opens room for a more extended move.”

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have contributed to safe-haven demand, though equity markets in Asia remained broadly resilient. This relative calm has capped gold’s upside for now. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index recovered modestly from recent lows, limiting further gains in non-yielding assets, such as gold.

Silver Holds Near $36.35 as Dollar Gains Cap Upside

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $36.29, just below its intraday high of $36.39, supported by similar safe-haven flows and dovish expectations from the Fed.

However, mild U.S. dollar strength and risk-on appetite in equity markets have weighed on momentum. Technical resistance at $36.52 remains a key barrier for bulls.

Market Eyes Fed for Cues on Rate Path

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, attention now turns to the language in the statement and updated economic projections.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 62% chance of a rate cut by September, a shift that could support gold and silver through the third quarter.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may pull back toward $3,408 if selling pressure builds, though the uptrend remains intact. Silver holds above $36.27 support, awaiting a breakout above $36.52 to resume bullish momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is retreating after peaking near $3,452, now testing trendline support within a rising channel. The current price sits around $3,424, hovering just above the 50 EMA at $3,409, while the 200 EMA remains a distant cushion near $3,365.

This pullback follows a strong bullish leg, but recent candles suggest fading momentum, with lower highs and upper wicks hinting at seller pressure. The $3,408 level is key—losing it could open downside toward $3,380 or even $3,360.

That said, the broader trend still favors buyers unless price closes below the lower channel boundary. A bounce here would keep the uptrend intact and may attract dip buyers eyeing $3,452 again.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is consolidating near $36.29 after failing to break above resistance at $36.52. The price remains trapped in a sideways range, holding just above key support at $35.97.

While the short-term momentum has faded, the 50 EMA at $36.27 is still trending above the 200 EMA at $35.76, suggesting the broader bias remains cautiously bullish. A break above $36.52 could reignite upside momentum toward $36.88 and $37.31, but without volume or a catalyst, silver may continue to drift.

A drop below $35.97 would put $35.46 and $35.12 back in focus. Until then, traders are likely watching for a clean breakout from this tightening range.