Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Breakout Near as China, Singapore Demand Rebounds

Market Overview

Gold and silver markets in Asia showed mixed signals this week, with India seeing gold trade at a discount for the first time in seven weeks, while other major hubs, including China and Singapore, reported improved activity. The slowdown follows a post-festival lull in India and heightened sensitivity to global rate movements.

In India, gold dealers offered discounts of up to $5 an ounce over official domestic prices, reflecting weaker retail demand after the Dhanteras and Diwali buying spree.

“Price volatility has slowed demand, and some investors are cashing in by selling coins they bought earlier for a profit,” said Ashok Jain, proprietor of Mumbai-based wholesaler Chenaji Narsinghji.

Domestic prices have cooled from record highs earlier this month, prompting traders to curb fresh stock purchases ahead of the November wedding season.

China, Singapore See Renewed Interest

Meanwhile, demand in China—the world’s largest gold consumer—showed renewed strength. Bullion traded at par to a $4 premium over international spot rates, up from last week’s volatile range between a $20 discount and an $8 premium.

The rebound to a pullback in global yields and a weaker dollar, which have slightly lifted appetite for precious metals in the broader Asian market.

Singapore and Hong Kong also reported higher premiums, suggesting resilient institutional demand despite global macro uncertainty. “The recent stabilization in rates has brought back some long-term buyers who were sitting on the sidelines,” said a metals trader based in Singapore.

Market Outlook Hinges on Fed and Rate Expectations

Markets are now pricing a 74.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, down from 91.1% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Lower rate expectations have capped upside potential for gold and silver in the short term, though analysts note that ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation risks continue to underpin safe-haven demand.

For now, bullion markets appear to be recalibrating. Traders are watching for fresh catalysts, from the Fed’s December decision to year-end demand trends in India and China, to determine whether gold and silver can sustain their broader uptrend into 2025.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is consolidating near $4,014, with resistance at $4,045 and support at $3,887, while silver holds around $49.11, eyeing a breakout above $49.40 or a pullback toward $47.20.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $4,014, consolidating below the descending trendline resistance around $4,045. The metal continues to face selling pressure near the 50-EMA ($4,041), while the 200-EMA ($3,948) provides underlying support.

The structure shows a potential tightening between the two moving averages, signaling that a breakout may be approaching.

The RSI at 50 suggests a neutral tone, reflecting the balance between buyers and sellers after last week’s recovery from $3,887. A decisive close above $4,045 could push prices toward $4,145 and $4,251, confirming a trend reversal. Conversely, a move below $3,887 might expose downside targets near $3,791.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $49.11, approaching a strong resistance zone around $49.40, where a triple-top pattern has formed. This level has capped rallies several times, making it a crucial inflection point for price direction. A breakout above this ceiling could confirm bullish momentum, opening the path toward $52.77 and $54.45, with the RSI at 61 supporting growing upward pressure.

However, rejection at this resistance could spark a short-term pullback toward the $47.28 support, reinforced by the 200-EMA ($47.39). The 50-EMA ($48.57) is trending higher, hinting at improving medium-term sentiment. Traders should watch for a confirmed candle close above $49.40 for bullish continuation, or below $47.20 for potential downside toward $45.57.

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