Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Bulls Eye $4,245 and $54.55 Amid Fed Dovish Shift

Market Overview

Gold extended its winning streak on Wednesday, setting a new record as investors moved toward safe-haven assets amid mounting global uncertainty. The rally follows renewed concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions, a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict — all of which have fueled a shift from risk assets to defensive holdings.

Analysts note that traders are increasingly factoring in a dovish Federal Reserve stance, with rate-cut expectations strengthening as economic risks accumulate. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October and a near 90% probability of another by year-end. This shift has weakened the dollar and lifted demand for non-yielding metals.

“Markets are repositioning ahead of potential policy easing,” said an analyst at Investec. “The combination of slower growth and a softer Fed outlook continues to underpin gold’s appeal as a portfolio hedge.”

Fed Policy Outlook Adds Momentum

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks on labor market softness and inflation moderation have bolstered expectations of monetary easing. Several Fed officials have also hinted that further cuts could be warranted if economic data weaken.

The dovish sentiment has kept Treasury yields under pressure, further enhancing gold’s attractiveness relative to traditional income-generating assets. With inflation expectations stabilizing near 2.5% and global growth indicators softening, traders view precious metals as a low-risk store of value.

Meanwhile, silver has mirrored gold’s advance, rising as industrial demand stays resilient amid renewed investment flows into commodities. Analysts suggest that the metal’s dual role—as both a monetary and industrial asset—has amplified its appeal in this environment.

Global Headwinds Reinforce Safe-Haven Flow

Trade policy uncertainty remains a major driver of market sentiment. Washington’s shifting stance toward tariffs and Beijing’s regulatory countermeasures have dampened investor confidence.

Additionally, the U.S. government shutdown, now in its third week, has delayed key data releases, limiting visibility into the economy’s trajectory.

These overlapping risks are sustaining appetite for precious metals as global benchmarks of stability. While volatility persists, analysts believe that as long as central banks signal patience and growth fears linger, both gold and silver will continue to attract defensive capital inflows.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to trade between $4,105 and $4,245, maintaining its bullish bias. Silver (XAG/USD) may test $54.55 if momentum holds above $51.37, supported by strong investor demand.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4,189 on Wednesday, holding firm within a rising channel after steady gains earlier in the week. The metal remains well-supported by the 50-EMA at $4,083 and the 200-EMA at $3,924, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Immediate resistance sits at $4,200, followed by $4,225 and $4,245, while support is seen at $4,168 and $4,105.

The RSI near 69 suggests intense buying pressure but signals that price may soon cool off. As long as gold holds above $4,105, the broader bias stays positive, with bulls eyeing $4,245 as the next upside target. A close below $4,105, however, could trigger short-term consolidation.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $52.35 on Wednesday, gaining 0.31% after rebounding from the $51.37 support level. The metal continues to respect its ascending trendline, supported by the 50-EMA at $50.94 and the 200-EMA at $47.88, both pointing to sustained bullish momentum.

Immediate resistance lies at $53.36, followed by $54.55, while support holds at $51.37 and $49.73. The RSI around 58 shows moderate buying strength with room for further upside.

If silver breaks above $53.36, it could accelerate toward $54.55. However, a dip below $51.37 might test $49.73, signaling short-term consolidation within the broader uptrend.