Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Bulls Hold Gains as Fed Cut Bets Rise

Market Overview

Gold and silver extended their gains in early European trade, supported by renewed safe-haven flows amid uncertainty surrounding the prolonged US government shutdown and growing expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Gold remained well bid above the $4,100 mark, while silver advanced 0.59% to $50.82, both benefiting from investor caution over weakening US economic sentiment.

Government Shutdown Spurs Flight to Safety

The partial US government shutdown, now the longest in history, continues to weigh on market confidence despite signs of progress in Congress. The Senate reached a tentative agreement late Sunday to reopen government operations, but concerns persist over the broader economic fallout.

Recent data showed the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for November falling to 50.3 from 53.6 in October, its weakest level since mid-2022.

The decline underscores rising consumer anxiety and slowing momentum in household spending, both of which have historically driven investors toward defensive assets such as gold.

Fed Outlook Tilts Toward Easing

Market participants increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to ease policy at its December meeting. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 60% probability of another rate cut, reflecting investors’ belief that policymakers will act to cushion the economy from prolonged fiscal disruption and softening data.

Lower rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, reinforcing its appeal.

“The Fed has to balance between inflation credibility and financial stability,” said one analyst at a London-based investment firm. “Gold remains a strategic hedge as both fiscal and monetary uncertainty deepen.”

Silver Tracks Gold Amid Broader Risk Caution

Silver mirrored gold’s trajectory, lifted by similar macroeconomic dynamics and sustained industrial demand in clean energy and electronics sectors. Analysts note that silver’s dual role, as both a monetary and industrial metal, makes it particularly sensitive to policy expectations and manufacturing sentiment.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is expected to trade between $4,045 and $4,185 in the short term, while silver may consolidate above $49.50, targeting $51.16 as safe-haven demand and rate-cut expectations persist.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $4,128 after a strong rally from the $3,930 zone, holding above the key $4,045 breakout level. The 4-hour chart shows a clear uptrend supported by the rising 50-EMA, while the 200-EMA near $3,980 provides a broader floor.

Momentum remains positive, but the RSI near 70 indicates that buyers may start to slow, leaving room for a short pullback. If prices stay above $4,045, the next upside targets are $4,185 and $4,275. However, a close below $4,045 could invite a deeper correction toward $3,930.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $50.72 after breaking above the $49.50 resistance level, confirming a short-term bullish structure. The 4-hour chart shows the price holding above both the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, with an ascending trendline providing additional support near $48.00.

The next resistance sits at $51.16, and a breakout above it could open the way toward $52.70. However, the RSI hovering around 70 suggests overbought conditions, raising the risk of a brief pullback.

If prices fall below $49.50, silver may test $48.00 support before resuming its broader uptrend. Overall, momentum remains constructive as long as silver holds above $49.50, with buyers likely to stay active on dips.