Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Bulls Target $4,010 and $50 as Momentum Builds

Market Overview

Gold and silver steadied on Tuesday after touching record highs, with both metals underpinned by expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising global risk aversion.

While the U.S. dollar posted modest gains for a second consecutive session, its strength remains limited as traders anticipate two rate cuts before the end of the year.

Lower borrowing costs typically weigh on the dollar and Treasury yields, improving the relative appeal of non-yielding assets such as precious metals.

Fed Policy Shift Keeps Gold in Focus

Markets are increasingly betting that the Fed will shift toward a more accommodative stance, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing traders pricing in a high probability of rate cuts in October and December. Analysts say this policy pivot continues to serve as a tailwind for gold, particularly as real yields flatten and inflation expectations remain elevated.

“Gold’s resilience is being driven by the market’s belief that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle,” said a commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Meanwhile, silver has mirrored gold’s stability, supported by its dual role as both an industrial and safe-haven asset. The metal is benefiting from demand in clean energy sectors, especially solar manufacturing, alongside macroeconomic uncertainty.

Political and Geopolitical Uncertainty Adds Support

Beyond monetary policy, safe-haven flows remain strong as global markets confront persistent political and geopolitical headwinds. The U.S. government shutdown, now extending into a second week, has raised concerns over fiscal management and economic continuity.

Investors remain wary of potential ripple effects on growth and market liquidity, leading to renewed interest in hard assets.

Elsewhere, ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and parts of the Middle East continue to heighten risk aversion, prompting investors to diversify away from equities and into commodities.

Outlook Ahead of Key Fed Events

Attention now turns to the FOMC Minutes due Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday. Markets will look for confirmation that the Fed remains open to further easing.

Analysts suggest that even if short-term corrections occur, the broader trend for gold and silver remains upward, supported by softening U.S. economic data, cautious investor sentiment, and lingering global uncertainty.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is expected to trade between $3,928 and $4,010, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations, while silver remains firm above $47.00, eyeing a potential breakout toward $50.00 if momentum strengthens.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,957, maintaining its position within a well-defined ascending channel. The metal briefly tested the $3,976 resistance before pulling back, suggesting mild profit-taking after a strong run. The 50-day EMA ($3,856) acts as dynamic support, while the next key level lies near $3,928, the mid-channel trendline.

A clear break above $3,976 could open the door toward $4,010 and $4,043, while failure to hold above $3,928 may trigger a correction toward $3,853. The RSI at 67 shows solid momentum but is approaching overbought territory.

Overall, as long as gold stays above $3,850, the short-term structure remains constructive, with buyers likely to re-enter on small dips.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $48.51, maintaining a steady uptrend within its rising parallel channel. The price is consolidating just below resistance at $48.76, where buyers have paused after a strong rally. The 50-day EMA ($46.84) provides firm support, while the 200-day EMA ($43.23) confirms the broader bullish structure.

A breakout above $48.76 could trigger an advance toward $49.36 and $50.02, while failure to hold above $47.73 may lead to a short-term pullback. The RSI near 62 reflects healthy momentum without overbought signals.

Overall, silver remains in an upward phase, and buyers may continue to dominate as long as it trades above $47.00.