Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: CPI Rise, Jobless Claims Spike Drive Mixed Momentum in Metals

Market Overview

Gold and silver markets traded cautiously as U.S. macroeconomic data offered mixed signals. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month, outpacing forecasts of 0.3%, while the annual rate held at 2.9%. Core CPI remained steady at 0.3%. The stronger inflation reading reinforced concerns that price pressures remain sticky.

At the same time, weekly jobless claims climbed to 263,000, above the expected 235,000, suggesting softening labor conditions. The widening federal budget deficit, reaching -$344.8 billion in August compared to -$291.1 billion in July, further complicated the fiscal backdrop.

Markets now await Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, projected at 58.2, alongside inflation expectations. Analysts note that persistent inflation expectations could limit the Federal Reserve’s scope for aggressive rate cuts despite signs of labor weakness.

“The Fed is trapped between stabilizing growth and avoiding inflation resurgence,” said one New York–based strategist.

Asian Demand Slows as Discounts Deepen

In Asia, physical bullion markets have weakened. In Shanghai, gold traded $17 below London prices for a second consecutive week, the longest discount streak since late 2024.

Analysts attribute the decline to subdued jewelry demand, with buyers shifting toward bars and coins. In India, where domestic prices have climbed more than 50% year-on-year, festival-season purchases are projected to fall 15–20%.

Industry reports show jewelry sales during Raksha Bandhan and Onam were down 25% year-on-year, marking the sharpest decline in three years.

Central Banks Offset Retail Weakness

Institutional and official demand continues to support the market. Central banks remain net buyers, a trend driven partly by reserve diversification amid trade policy uncertainty.

This accumulation has historically provided stability during periods of weak retail consumption. Analysts point to similar dynamics in 2020–2021, when central bank purchases underpinned prices despite declining consumer markets.

Silver, which often tracks gold, has also been influenced by investor positioning rather than jewelry demand. With industrial use steady and institutional flows active, analysts suggest that precious metals remain anchored by central bank activity, even as consumer demand in Asia slows.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) hovers near $3,634, with support at $3,620 and resistance at $3,637. Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $41.56, targeting $41.77 while holding above $41.25 support.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,634, consolidating inside a descending triangle on the 2-hour chart. Sellers are defending the upper trendline near $3,637, while buyers are holding the rising support trendline at $3,620.

A breakdown below $3,620 could open the way toward $3,613 and $3,596, with further risk to $3,580. The 50-EMA at $3,620 provides temporary support, but momentum remains fragile.

The RSI at 50 signals neutrality, leaving the next move dependent on a breakout. If bulls manage to clear $3,637, a test of $3,650–$3,658 could follow, but rejection favors renewed pressure lower. Traders are watching closely for confirmation.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $41.56, holding inside its ascending channel on the 2-hour chart. The metal broke above $41.25 support, with momentum targeting resistance at $41.77. The 50-EMA at $41.10 is acting as immediate support, while the 200-EMA at $40.08 underpins the broader bullish structure.

The RSI at 64 signals strong buying pressure but is nearing overbought levels, which could slow momentum. If bulls clear $41.77, silver may extend gains toward $42.09 and $42.40.

On the downside, a break below $41.25 risks a correction toward $40.97. Buyers currently remain in control, but watch for rejection candles near resistance.