Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: CPI Risk Puts $4,300 Gold, $66 Silver in Play

Market Overview

Gold and silver traded cautiously in early European hours as investors positioned ahead of the US Consumer Price Index, the key macro catalyst for markets today. A modest rebound in the US dollar encouraged short-term profit-taking across precious metals, but broader fundamentals remain supportive as expectations for Federal Reserve easing continue to firm.

Markets are increasingly sensitive to inflation signals, with today’s CPI release expected to provide clarity on whether recent disinflation trends are intact. Consensus forecasts point to headline CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year, with core inflation seen at 3.0%. Any downside surprise would likely reinforce rate-cut expectations and revive demand for non-yielding assets.

Labor Data Reinforces Policy Shift Narrative

Recent US labor market figures have played a central role in shaping sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, a modest gain that followed a sharp downward revision in the prior month. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.6%, its highest level in over a year, reinforcing signs that labor conditions are gradually loosening. According to LSEG data, futures markets now reflect a rising probability of a policy rate cut in the coming months, signaling a shift toward easier financial conditions.

Lower real yields typically improve the relative appeal of gold and silver, which do not generate income but tend to perform well when borrowing costs fall and currency strength softens.

Labor Data Keeps Rate-Cut Bets Alive

Recent US labor market data has already shifted the policy narrative. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 64,000 in November, following a sharp downward revision in October, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6, its highest level in over a year. According to LSEG, rate-cut probabilities for the coming months have risen steadily since the report, reflecting confidence that economic momentum is cooling.

Lower real yields and softer growth expectations typically favor gold and silver, which benefit when borrowing costs decline and the opportunity cost of holding metals falls.

Fed Signals and Defensive Positioning

Federal Reserve messaging remains uneven. Governor Christopher Waller has signaled openness to gradual easing if inflation continues to slow, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has urged patience. This split leaves CPI as the decisive input.

Gold’s safe-haven role remains intact, while silver continues to draw support from both defensive demand and industrial exposure. With inflation now firmly in focus, today’s CPI print is likely to determine near-term direction for precious metals.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may hold $4,305 support and retest $4,350–$4,390, while silver eyes $66.90–$68.50 if CPI reinforces rate-cut bets; downside seen near $4,260 and $63.60.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,331 on the 2-hour chart, consolidating after failing to extend above the $4,350–$4,360 resistance zone. Recent candlesticks show smaller bodies with upper wicks, signaling hesitation rather than aggressive selling. Price remains supported above the rising trendline from early December, keeping the short-term structure constructive.

Gold is holding above the 50-EMA near $4,305, while the 100-EMA around $4,220 continues to slope higher, reinforcing trend support. Immediate resistance sits at $4,350, followed by $4,390.

On the downside, key support lies at $4,306, then $4,266, aligned with prior structure and a Fibonacci retracement of the latest leg higher. RSI near 58 shows steady momentum without overbought conditions. Trade idea, buy pullbacks near $4,305, targeting $4,390, with a stop below $4,260.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $66.40 on the 2-hour chart, consolidating after a strong upside push that cleared the $65.10–$65.50 resistance zone. Recent candlesticks show small bodies and short wicks, signaling digestion of gains rather than distribution. Price continues to respect the rising channel from early December, keeping the trend intact.

Silver is holding above the 50-EMA near $64.80, while the 100-EMA around $60.10 remains well below price, reinforcing bullish structure. Immediate resistance is seen at $66.90, followed by $68.50, aligning with the upper channel boundary.

On the downside, support sits at $65.15, then $63.60, a prior breakout zone and Fibonacci retracement area. RSI near 62 reflects firm momentum without overbought pressure. Trade idea is to buy pullbacks near $65.20, targeting $68.50, with a stop below $63.60.