Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Dollar Strength, CPI Data Keep Bulls on Edge

Market Overview

Gold extended its decline in Asian trading on Friday, weighed down by a firmer U.S. Dollar and fading physical demand from India following the end of the Diwali festival. The yellow metal’s retreat comes as investors brace for key U.S. inflation figures and renewed trade talks between Washington and Beijing, both of which could shape near-term sentiment in precious metals markets.

Dollar Recovery and Softer Indian Demand Pressure Gold

The U.S. Dollar rebounded this week as traders reduced exposure to risk assets, limiting gold’s appeal. The greenback’s strength often moves inversely to gold, and its recovery has prompted investors to lock in profits after the metal’s rapid 50% year-to-date rally.

Meanwhile, Indian jewelry demand typically tapers off following the Diwali season, curbing one of gold’s key sources of physical support. “Seasonal buying tends to cool sharply after the festival, leaving gold more dependent on global macro flows,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.

Markets Await U.S. CPI and Trade Talks Outcome

Investors are now focused on the delayed release of U.S. Consumer Price Index data, expected to show a 0.4% monthly and 3.1% annual increase.

A stronger reading could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts, while a softer figure may revive dovish sentiment and lift bullion.

Attention also turns to Malaysia, where U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice-Premier He Lifeng are set to resume high-level trade talks. The outcome will set the tone ahead of next week’s Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit.

Safe-Haven Demand Offers Limited Cushion

Although economic optimism has capped safe-haven inflows, persistent global uncertainty continues to underpin gold’s longer-term outlook. The ongoing China’s Vice-Premier—now in its 24th day—has delayed economic data and dampened business confidence.Silver Tracks Gold’s Downtrend.

Although economic optimism has capped safe-haven inflows, persistent global uncertainty continues to underpin gold’s longer-term outlook. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown—now in its 24th day—has delayed economic data and dampened business confidence.

Silver Tracks Gold’s Downtrend

Silver prices followed gold lower, pressured by the stronger dollar and weaker industrial demand. Analysts note that easing U.S.-China trade tensions have softened manufacturing expectations, reducing silver’s short-term appeal.

Still, both metals remain supported by expectations of lower U.S. interest rates and lingering geopolitical risks, suggesting downside may be contained until clearer signals emerge from inflation data and policy announcements.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold hovers near $4,090, struggling below the $4,147 EMA as traders await U.S. CPI data. Silver trades around $48.30, holding above $47.50 support amid fading momentum and cautious sentiment.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $4,092, struggling to regain momentum after its recent pullback. The price remains below the 50-EMA ($4,147), indicating short-term weakness, while the 200-EMA ($3,931) continues to act as solid support.

The RSI around 41 reflects limited buying strength, suggesting consolidation could continue before a clearer trend emerges. A close above $4,165 could signal renewed upside toward $4,220, while failure to stay above $4,040 may invite another dip toward $3,960.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $48.34, extending its pullback after failing to reclaim the 50-EMA at $50.06. The metal is testing a rising trendline close to $47.55, where buyers previously stepped in.

The RSI at 38 signals weak momentum, showing that selling pressure remains dominant but may be slowing. If silver holds above $47.50, a short-term rebound toward $49 could emerge, while a break below this zone may trigger deeper losses toward $45.80.