Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bearish Grind Dips Tests Prior Low

Thursday’s Continued Decline

Crude oil extended its bearish trajectory Thursday, printing a new pullback low of $57.04 that slightly undercuts the prior November low of $57.21 established two weeks ago. At writing price continues trading in the lower third of the day’s range and appears poised for a weak closing. A daily settlement below $57.21 would confirm the breakdown; otherwise, today’s low still sits directly on the 88.6% retracement at $57.16, offering the same potential support that held the earlier swing low.

Larger Downtrend Context

A decisive push through today’s low would deliver another clear bearish signal within an already established larger downtrend. That trend has accelerated recently, especially in relation to the falling 50-day average, which has repeatedly capped advances and produced lower highs—most recently in the same region. Despite an unmistakable bearish technical posture, overall volatility has remained surprisingly muted since the pullback began from the October swing high, where the 50-day line first proved itself as firm resistance on multiple occasions.

Major Support Zone Below

Crude oil now sits atop a large and historically significant support band that stretches down to the 2025 low of $55.23. The sharp bullish reversal in October demonstrated genuine buyer conviction—some of which may have been short covering, yet the technical pattern still suggests potential for another demand spurt if this zone can hold. Even if lower prices materialize short-term, the presence of this major support area implies downside containment remains probable.

Upside Reversal Requirements

Any meaningful shift to bullish control would first require a sustained breakout above the recent lower swing high at $60.56 to signal a short-term trend change. More aggressive traders are watching for an initial reclaim of Wednesday’s three-day high at $59.22 and the 20-day average near $59.11, where the 10-day and 20-day averages currently converge with a downtrend line—creating a reinforced resistance pocket of heightened significance.

Outlook

Crude oil’s quiet but relentless grind lower has brought it to the edge of a critical 88.6% Fibonacci and multi-month low zone. A daily close beneath $57.04–$57.21 opens acceleration toward the broader $55–$57 support band; respect here keeps alive the possibility of an October-style sharp reversal. Until a convincing push and hold above the $59.11–$59.22 confluence, bears retain full control.

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